Why is Turkey afraid of NATO membership of the Nordic countries?

He stated that he could not allow their membership because of the support he says they give to Kurdish militants and other groups that Ankara says threaten its national security.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has expressed confidence that the alliance will decide to accept Sweden and Finland immediately. But Erdogan’s statement suggests that the two countries’ journey will not be easy.

Approval from Turkey is important as NATO makes decisions by consensus. Each of the 30 member states can veto the membership of a new country.

Erdogan’s government is thought to be using the two countries’ application to obtain concessions and guarantees from allies.

In the following, we take a look at Turkey’s position, the benefits it can receive, but also the consequences it may have.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM OF TURKEY WITH TWO MEMBERSHIP APPLICATIONS?

Turkey, the country with the second largest army in NATO, has traditionally been in support of NATO enlargement, believing that the open door policy strengthens European security. Turkey has expressed e.g. in favor of a membership perspective for Ukraine and Georgia.

Mr Erdogan’s objections to Sweden and Finland stem from Turkey’s dissatisfaction with Stockholm – and to a lesser extent with Helsinki – for its alleged support for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the left-wing group. DHKP-C extremist, and supporters of US-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom Ankara says orchestrated the failed 2016 military coup.

Many Kurds and other asylum seekers have found refuge in Sweden in recent decades. Members of the Gulen movement have recently been added to them. According to Turkish state media, Sweden and Finland have refused to extradite 33 people wanted by Turkey.

Ankara, which often accuses allied countries of turning a blind eye to its security concerns, is also angered by restrictions imposed on the sale of military equipment to Turkey. The restrictions were imposed by EU countries, including Sweden and Finland, following Turkey’s military operation in northern Syria in 2019.

Further justifying his opposition, Mr Erdogan says his country should not repeat the “mistake” Ankara made when it agreed to readmit Greece to NATO’s military structure in 1980. He says this enabled Greece “Take a stand against Turkey” with NATO support.

WHAT CAN TURKEY BENEFIT?

It is thought that Turkey will try to negotiate a compromise agreement, under which the two countries would strike at the PKK and other groups, in exchange for Turkey’s support for their NATO membership. A key demand is expected to be for them to stop any kind of support for a group of Syrian Kurds, the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG). They are allies of the West in the fight against the Islamic State group in northern Syria, but Turkey perceives them as an extension of the PKK.

Erdogan could also try to use the membership of Sweden and Finland to obtain concessions from the United States and other allies. Turkey wants to become part of the US-led F-35 military aircraft program again. It was excluded from the program after purchasing Russian S-400 missile defense systems. If it fails to become part of the F-35 program, Turkey wants to buy a new series of F-16 fighter jets to upgrade its air force.

Other demands could include ending an informal embargo on arms sold by allies to Turkey; concessions from EU member states on Turkey’s unsuccessful application for membership; as well as further funding to help the country support 3.7 million Syrian refugees.

HOW DOES THIS AFFECT THE IMAGE OF TURKEY IN THE WEST?

Turkey’s threat to veto is likely to damage its position in Washington and in all NATO countries, reinforcing the image of a country that is blocking the expansion of the alliance for its own benefit. With such a move, Turkey also risks undoing the image it gained by supplying Ukraine with Bayraktar TB2 fighter drones, which became an effective weapon against Russian forces.

“Turkey will be seen as a Putin tool within NATO,” said Soner Cagaptay, a Turkey expert at the Washington Institute. “No one will remember the objections because of the PKK. Everyone will focus on the fact that Turkey is blocking NATO enlargement. “It will tarnish Turkey’s image in NATO.”

Mr Cagaptay says the obstacles Turkey raises could also undermine the positive trend that has begun to emerge in Washington for the sale of F-16 jets. “I do not see how this sale would be realized now,” he says.

IS TURKEY ATTEMPTING TO CALM RUSSIA?

Turkey has established close relations with Russia and Ukraine and has tried to keep those ties balanced. Turkey has not joined the sanctions against Russia, while supporting Ukraine with drones that prevented Russia from gaining supremacy in the air.

“The fact that Erdogan is deliberately deviating from the (NATO) process suggests that he may be trying to balance the strong military support that Turkey has given to Kiev with political support for Russia,” Cagaptay said.

Another leading Turkish politician has expressed concern that the membership of Finland and Sweden could provoke Russia and could further fuel the war in Ukraine. Devlet Bahceli, leader of a nationalist party allied with Mr Erdogan, said the best option would be to leave the two Nordic countries “waiting in the lobby”.

CAN THIS AFFECT ERDOGAN’S POSITION INSIDE THE COUNTRY?

The Turkish leader is experiencing a decline in support in the country due to the weak economy, very high inflation and the crisis of expensive living.

A stalemate with Western countries over the emotional issue of aid supposedly being given to the PKK could help Mr Erdogan boost his support and unite nationalist votes ahead of the June 2023 elections.

“With wavering support within the country, at a time when Turkey is entering an electoral life cycle, Erdogan is seeking a higher international profile in order to demonstrate his global importance to Turkish voters,” wrote analyst Asli Aydintasbas. in an article published in the European Council on Foreign Relations./VOA

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