Why is Russian President Putin worried about Ukraine’s membership in NATO?

Ukraine has long aspired to NATO membership, but the alliance is reluctant to offer an invitation, in part because of corruption in Kiev, shortcomings in building its defense capabilities and a lack of control over its international borders.

Mr Putin’s demands go beyond the issue of Ukraine’s membership in NATO, but that connection is at the heart of his dissatisfaction with the West, which he says is testing his patience by approaching Russia’s borders. He says NATO enlargement years ago has strengthened its security at the expense of Russia.

The Russians are seeking legal guarantees that Ukraine will be denied NATO membership, given that NATO as a matter of principle has never ruled out possible membership for any European country, not even Russia, but has no plans to launch the process. of Ukraine’s membership in the near future. The principle cited by NATO is that all countries should be free to choose their alliances.

Why, then, is Moscow now raising its concern over Ukraine’s relations with NATO? The answer is complicated.

WHY IS RUSSIAN PRESIDENT PUTIN CONCERNED OVER UKRAINE’S NATO MEMBERSHIP?

The stated reason is that further NATO eastward expansion would pose a security threat to Russia. Washington and its allies deny that this is a valid concern, as no NATO country is threatening to use force against Russia.

More broadly, Mr. Putin wants NATO to withdraw its military presence in Eastern Europe, which includes a series of regularly rotating deployments to the former Soviet countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. There are no American troops with a permanent presence in these three Baltic countries. About 100 US troops are currently in Lithuania and about 60 in Estonia and Latvia together, as part of NATO’s rotating troop deployment in the region, the Pentagon says.

The Russian president also opposes the presence of NATO missile defense system in Romania, a former Soviet satellite country, and a similar base being built in Poland, saying they could be turned into offensive weapons capable of threaten Russia. President Joe Biden this week approved the deployment of 2,700 more US troops to Eastern Europe, 1,700 to Poland and 1,000 to Romania, and 300 to Germany.

Ukraine has strong historical and cultural ties with Russia, and Mr. Putin has consistently asserted that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people.” He has said that large parts of Ukrainian territory have historically been part of Russia given to Ukraine arbitrarily by the communist leaders of the Soviet Union.

Mr Putin’s actions, however, have strengthened Ukrainians’ sense of national identity. After Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula and backed an armed uprising in eastern Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine’s desire to ally with the West and join NATO only grew.

President Putin recently described more concretely his concern for Ukraine. He cited a scenario in which Ukraine could use military force to retake the Crimean peninsula or retake areas in eastern Ukraine now controlled by Russian-backed separatists.

“Imagine if Ukraine becomes a member of NATO and launches a military operation,” Putin said. “Should we fight NATO then? Has anyone thought about this? ”

Indeed, some NATO countries have thought that there could be the possibility of an expanded war with Russia inside Ukraine. This is a reminder of what Ukraine’s membership in NATO would mean. The Alliance considers an attack on one member country as an attack on the whole of NATO. Theoretically, this meant that if Ukraine were part of NATO and attacked by Russia, then all other NATO member states would have to come to its defense.

WHAT IS UKRAINE’S PERSPECTIVE FOR NATO MEMBERSHIP?

The prospect of membership in the foreseeable future is almost non-existent.

Although Ukraine does not have any NATO membership bids, over time it has moved closer to the alliance, starting with the drafting in 1997 of a NATO-Ukraine Charter to further develop cooperation.

NATO heads of government have publicly stated in 2008 that Ukraine and the other former Soviet republic of Georgia, “will become members of NATO.” They did not say when or how, but the statement could be seen as an explanation for Moscow’s concern that the ultimate goal is for Kiev to become part of the alliance.

On the other hand, the United States and other NATO leaders who signed the 2008 declaration on Ukraine and Georgia decided not to open with them the Membership Action Plan – a path to eventual membership.

Germany and France strongly opposed Ukraine’s further rapprochement with allies, and the broader view within NATO was that Ukraine needed to make sweeping reforms before becoming a candidate for membership.

This contradiction seems to have never been resolved, which means that although NATO’s door is open, Ukraine will not soon cross that threshold.

PRESSURE OF THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT WITH UKRAINE

Moscow says it has no plans to invade Ukraine, but in recent months has amassed large numbers of combat troops along Ukraine’s borders, hinting that it will respond, but without specifying how, if its demands to Washington and NATO are not met. Mr Biden’s administration says Russia now has the capability for a wide range of military action, including a large-scale invasion of Kiev.

President Putin says NATO has gone too far not only by providing Ukraine with weapons and military training, but also by deploying forces in other Eastern European countries that it says compromise Russian security.

On the other hand, the increase over the last decade of the US and NATO military presence in Eastern Europe, came as a result of the annexation of the Crimean Peninsula by Russia and its incursion into eastern Ukraine in 2014. These actions of Russia pushed NATO to redouble its focus on collective security. In September 2014, NATO leaders created a new rapid reaction force, capable of deploying within days, and reaffirmed their commitment to increase defense spending.

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