Why does the world risk World War III?

The politician warns that the real danger of a new world war does not come so much from Russia as from tensions between China and the US in the Pacific region.

Why did Ukraine yesterday, and Sweden and Finland today, want to join NATO?

Ukraine was invited in 2008. But then for obvious reasons, it was realized that the invitation would not be followed by membership, as this would cause problems with Russia. After the Russian occupation.

of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland, two countries that have been neutral throughout the Cold War, feel that neutrality is not enough to guarantee their security. All of these neutral countries, including Serbia and Switzerland, are NATO partners and as such are not protected by Article 5 of the NATO founding treaty.

Are Russia’s threats against them real?

The Russians clearly told the Swedes and Finns: “Make the choice you want, but remember that if you become a member of NATO, we must strengthen our defense on the borders we have with you and in the Baltic Sea.” And that includes a possible deployment of nuclear weapons on a scale not previously thought of.

But this is more of a political than an operational gesture, as today the Russians have nuclear weapons ready to strike Sweden and Finland. I therefore find it impossible for the conflict to spread to these countries, also because the Russian military machinery is coming out badly damaged by the recent adventure in Ukraine.

Why is Russia afraid of Sweden and Finland, two usually peaceful countries?

The Russians have no problems with these two Scandinavian countries in themselves, but with NATO. Remember that the Atlantic Alliance, to which Sweden and Finland want to join, is superior to Russia in terms of military spending and power, with the exception of nuclear weapons. It is not like in the Cold War, when the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact countries had a conventional force greater than that of NATO. Today this balance of power has been reversed.

But why is Russia so afraid of NATO, if the alliance countries have never directly attacked Russian soil?

That’s true, but Putin is a man who has grown up in the ranks of the KGB, and wants a range of neutral countries from northern Europe to the Caucasus. However there was a period when NATO and Russia were real partners, but later relations broke down.

Are you talking about the NATO-Russia partnership?

Yes. It would take great political will to maintain a partnership between NATO, in which the US holds the main weight, and Russia, which still possesses considerable nuclear power. When Putin saw a number of former Soviet countries joining NATO, he began to have doubts about what the future would hold. As early as 2007 he warned he would no longer accept any NATO enlargement to the east. This signal was generally not understood. So much so that despite the Georgia war in 2008, the alliance invited Tbilisi and Kiev.

If the collapse of the Soviet Union marked the end of the Cold War, why did NATO need to expand its eastern borders?

This is a good question that I have asked myself in those years. And the answer was given to me by a Romanian colonel. He told me: “You do not know what it means when a country does not feel safe. “We do not want to be in a gray area.”

In retrospect, with what happened in Ukraine, I understand that answer. There is a difference between the de facto loss of 1/10 of the country in a hybrid war, as happened with Crimea and Donbas, and a full-scale invasion. It is the latter, which prompted the Swedes and Finns to ask themselves some questions. In this case, the legacy of communism has nothing to do with it. It all has to do with nationalism.

So Putin does not want the reconstruction of the Soviet Union?

No, ideology is just a disguise. The Soviet Union could have been a democratic power, but the truth is that it was a competing power. Putin does not want to rebuild the Soviet Union. He has the mentality of a Russian nationalist and is only interested in rebuilding a strong and powerful Russia. The war was a big mistake of his, and he has already lost it because he failed to overthrow the Ukrainian government.

So we will not have a return to the Cold War?

I am not afraid of the return of the Cold War, but I am afraid that if this situation does not end quickly, and if the United States and China do not negotiate seriously, we risk entering into a new world war for the Pacific.

Ukraine is just one detail, while the Pacific is vital to the United States and China. There is a detonator in Europe, but in the Pacific there are major explosive devices. This is so true that it was where the Americans dropped the nuclear bomb in World War II and not in Europe. /bota.al/

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