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The International Monetary Fund in its April projections for economic growth states that our country will receive the strongest blow from the war compared to the countries of the region.
From 4.5% that was the initial forecast in October, the IMF has revised it to 2%, halving economic growth. Growth rates are expected to be low in 2023, with 2.8% and will accelerate slightly to 3.4% by 2027.
Meanwhile, for the countries of the region, the IMF predicts that Serbia will be the one to feel the least blow from the war, followed by Montenegro, Northern Macedonia and Kosovo. Serbia has an advantage because by not imposing sanctions on Russia it continues to be regularly supplied with Russian gas and to have a more stable energy situation.
Of all the forecasts of international institutions, that of the Monetary Fund is the most pessimistic. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has previously forecast 3.3% economic expansion for this year.
In its crisis report, the IMF also writes that rising food and oil prices will increase the prospects for social unrest in developing countries.
She says governments will need to adjust fiscal balances and provide support to those in need, without jeopardizing public debt.
Central banks, on the other hand, need to keep inflation under control. Although some banks have raised interest rates, the report said, they should continue to raise interest rates in order to boost confidence in the fight against inflation and prevent further increases.
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