VOA: US sees Putin as angry, irritated and inclined to escalate war

In recent days officials have said publicly that they are concerned that the Russian president will escalate the conflict in an attempt to break Ukraine’s resistance. Russia still has overwhelming military advantages and can continue to bomb the country for weeks. And as the rest of the world reacts to the horrific images of the war he started, President Putin remains protected from internal pressure by what CIA Director William Burns called a “propaganda bubble.”

Although difficult to analyze from a distance, understanding the Russian president’s mentality is critical of the West as it continues to offer more military assistance to Ukraine as well as to prevent Mr. Putin from directly challenging NATO countries or possibly press the nuclear button. Reporting to Congress last week, intelligence officials openly expressed concerns about what President Putin might do. And these concerns are increasingly shaping discussions about what American decision-makers are willing to do for Ukraine.

For over two decades, President Putin has put total control over the Russian government and security services, governing a small internal circle, suppressing dissent, and imprisoning or killing the opposition. He has long criticized the dissolution of the Soviet Union, dismissed Ukraine’s claims to sovereignty, and said the Russians would emerge as “martyrs” from a possible nuclear war. Mr Burns told lawmakers he believed the Russian president had been “contemplating a dangerous mix of resentment and ambition” for years.

The CIA director said the Russian leader planned to occupy Kiev within two days. But in fact, his army has failed to take control of major cities and has lost several thousand soldiers so far. The West has imposed sanctions and other measures that have paralyzed the Russian economy and lowered living standards for oligarchs and ordinary citizens. Most of the foreign currency that Russia had amassed to protect itself from sanctions is now frozen in banks abroad.

Mr Burns is a former US ambassador to Moscow and has met with Mr Putin many times. He told lawmakers in response to a question about the Russian president’s mental state that he did not believe Putin was crazy.

“I think Putin is angry and irritated now,” he said. “He is likely to double his campaign and try to bring down the Ukrainian army regardless of civilian casualties.”

“Russia’s recent unsubstantiated claims that the United States is helping Ukraine develop chemical or biological weapons suggest that Putin may be prepared to deploy those weapons himself as a pretext,” Burns said.

There does not seem to be any way out of the war. It is almost unimaginable that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has won worldwide admiration for leading his country’s resistance, suddenly recognizes Russia’s annexation of Crimea or supports the granting of autonomy to the regions of eastern Ukraine close to Russia. . Even if he takes control of Kiev and ousts Mr. Zelenskyy, the Russian president must consider facing a Western-backed uprising in a country of more than 40 million people.

“He does not have a lasting political solution in the face of what will continue to be fierce resistance from the Ukrainians,” Mr Burns said.

European leaders are trying to maintain a dialogue with Putin. Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Javier Bettel videotaped it on Monday and “called for an immediate ceasefire,” according to Bettel’s Twitter post. A spokesman said he had been encouraged to contact the Russian president by other leaders who “wanted to make sure he kept talking to them”. Mr Bettel also spoke with President Zelenskyy.

Avril Haines, President Joe Biden’s director of national intelligence, said President Putin “perceives this as a war not to be missed. “But what he may be willing to accept as a victory may change over time given the considerable consequences.”

Intelligence analysts believe that raising Russia’s nuclear readiness level was “probably aimed at deterring the West from continuing to provide support to Ukraine,” she said.

The restrained stance of the White House in order to avoid a possible escalation has at times made both Democrats and Republicans unhappy. After hinting that it could support him, President Biden’s administration has in recent days refused to accept a Polish plan to donate Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine that would seek US assistance in transferring them. The administration had earlier delayed sanctions on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and initially did not send Stinger air defense missiles to Ukraine. The White House then changed course.

Asked on Thursday, Ms. Haines said the Russian president could consider the transfer of aircraft as something more serious than sending anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. She did not say whether the US intelligence had information to support the idea.

Illinois Democratic lawmaker Mike Quigley, a member of the House Intelligence Committee, said Mr Biden’s administration had “always been one or two steps behind” for fear of further provoking the Russian president. He urged the White House to agree swiftly on the transfer of the planes.

Meanwhile, as violence escalates and the death toll among Russians rises, the West is trying to see signs of a rift in Putin’s “propaganda bubble.” An independent Russian political analyst, Kirill Rogov, wrote on his Telegram page that the war was “lost” and an “epic failure.”

“The mistake was in the idea that the West was not ready to resist aggression, that it was lethargic, greedy and divisive,” the analyst wrote.

“The idea that the Russian economy is self-sufficient and secure was wrong. The idea of ​​how capable the Russian army was was wrong. “And the main mistake was the idea that Ukraine is a failed state and Ukrainians are not a nation.”

“Four mistakes in making a decision are many,” he said.

Prior to the aggression, a poll conducted by the Levada Center, Russia’s leading independent polling firm, found that 60 percent of those polled considered the United States and NATO “initiators” of the conflict in eastern Ukraine. Only 3% answered that it was Russia. The poll was conducted in January and February, and the Levada Center has not published a new poll since the start of the war.

Foreigners hope ordinary Russians will respond to the sharp decline in their living standards and find accurate descriptions of the war through relatives and the Internet, including using VPN software to circumvent Kremlin blockades in the media. social. Russian state television continues to broadcast false or unsubstantiated allegations about the US and Ukrainian governments and to spread the idea that Russia should win the war at all costs.

“Otherwise, it will lead to the death of Russia itself,” Vladimir Solovyov, the host of a daily radio show last week, told Russia 1 state television. VOA