The former Kremlin adviser talks about Putin’s obsession with Ukraine

In an interview with RFE / RL’s Georgian Service, Gleb Pavlovsky said Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine on February 24 “has no political significance.”

“This is a completely personal decision of Putin,” he said. “No one but Putin would have made this decision, not even Ramzan Kadyrov, if he had been asked,” Pavvlovsky said, referring to the authoritarian leader of the Russian Republic of Chechnya.

“No one, including me, realized how manic he must have been with Ukraine. “We underestimated the degree of decay of the Russian government.”

A dissident during the Soviet era, Pavlovsky served a sentence before the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the fall of communism, Pavlovksy became a “political technologist,” serving as a Kremlin adviser from 1996 to 2011. After that, he became a critic of Putin’s presidency.

His comments come as Russian forces have largely stalled in their advance or retreat to Ukraine, making little progress or holding positions south, mostly along the Black Sea coast. More than 4 million people have been forced to flee their homes due to Russia’s unprovoked attack. Human Rights Watch and others have accused Russian troops of committing war crimes and atrocities in the occupied territories of Chernihiv, Kharkiv and the Kiev region.

In an interview with REL, Pavlovsky, 71, said Putin “trapped in a trap in Ukraine.”

““Ukraine should be a tool to pressure the West to discuss security issues.”said Pavlovsky, referring to the Kremlin’s demands that Putin initially made public in December 2021.

“It’s a strategy game. But I was shocked to see that he rejected all possibilities for negotiations on Russia’s real security and instead chose this strange pogrom he calls a ‘special military operation’.‘”, Said Pavlovsky.

“With the Russian military mainly withdrawing from areas north of Kiev and declaring that it will now focus on areas of southeastern Ukraine that are already controlled by Russian-backed separatists, Pavlovksy said Putin would find it difficult to declare it.” victory ”.

“Immediately signing a ceasefire would be the smartest thing Russia could do now. It could get neutral status from Ukraine, but it would be worth nothing. As for ‘disarmament’, which has become a propaganda slogan, the magnitude of the damage to Ukraine’s military infrastructure is sufficient to claim that ‘disarmament’ has been achieved. “Russia will try to retain the territories it has occupied so far, especially those in the Sea of ​​Azov, but that will depend on the will of the Ukrainians to negotiate and stop fighting.” said Pavlovsky, referring to the sea located in the southeastern tip of Ukraine.

Like other Kremlin observers, Pavlovsky said he believed Putin was hoping to end hostilities by May 9, when he would claim “victory” as Russia marked the same day as defeating Nazi Germany in World War II. World. Large military parades are usually held on this day in Moscow’s Red Square, where soldiers and other military equipment parade.

“If a ceasefire agreement is reached before May 9, so that Russia can celebrate and ‘sell’ this as a victory, then it would be a good result. If not, we will not have peace and negotiations will drag on and Russia will face even bigger problems through sanctions.“Pavlovsky predicted, stressing that sanctions pose an even more serious risk in the long run to Russia’s well-being.”

The longer the conflict lasts, the more likely it is that Moscow will escalate the situation in Ukraine, Pavlovsky predicted, citing the possibility that the conflict could spread beyond Ukraine’s borders and become an even bigger conflict.

“And if Russia does not choose peace and decides to continue the war, then it can do things in Ukraine that will cause this conflict to escalate to an unpredictable level. And this next level will happen beyond the borders of Ukraine. This could turn into a conventional war between Russia and the West, with NATO. “It’s hard to say exactly what this will look like, but I no longer think it could be impossible.”said Pavlovsky.

If Russian aggression in Ukraine continues to drag on – including an increase in casualties and losses of military equipment – global sanctions will begin to be felt even more, Pavlovsky predicted, adding that it is unlikely that the Russians will start t ‘oppose Russia, but are more likely to join the army.

“I do not think people have yet understood the impact of sanctions, but will start to feel the consequences over the summer. And once they realize that the sanctions are designed to destroy both the Russian economy and the Russian Federation, everyone will unite in resistance. Will they blame Putin or themselves for this? “Was there a Russian watching German tanks entering in 1941 blaming Stalin and Molotov?”, said Pavlovsky, referring to former Soviet dictator and former Soviet Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, who was the first to sign the non-aggression pact with Nazi Germany, which included secret protocols for the division of Central and Eastern Europe into “spheres”. relevant impact ”. This document was later rejected by Hitler who invaded the Soviet Union.

The possibility that the Russian elite, the so-called oligarchs, may turn against Putin is something Pavlovsky is skeptical about.

“That so-called theory that assumes that the oligarchs rule Russia. The oligarchs have never ruled Russia, not even during the time of [Boris] Weak Yeltsin “Pavlovsky explained, referring to Russia’s first post-communist president.

Pavlovsky also dismissed claims that people were leaving Putin’s circle, referring to the recent departure of prominent post-Soviet reformer Anatoly Chubais from the post of Putin’s special envoy for sustainable development.

“There is a false and even bizarre assumption that Putin’s inner circle will begin to distance himself from him. This will not happen. Chubais was not a member of this close circle, however. He will not be missed by anyone because he was no longer important, and has not been important for years. Practically, he has been a relic of the bygone era. If he had had any value for the Kremlin, he would not have been allowed to leave‘”, Said Pavlovsky.

Unconfirmed reports have said that Chubais has left Russia and is believed to have gone to Turkey.

But that does not mean Putin will not face threats to his power, not excluding threats from his inner circle, Pavlovsky added.

“They are not idealists, they have their own designs for the throne. Those who are all waiting for the moment of transition. And that really makes Putin nervous because he is surrounded by people who love his throne. Especially if it is taken into account that most of the work of state leadership on a daily basis is not done by him“, Said Pavlovsky. “If anyone thinks that Putin sits down and governs with the state economy, with public life, then that is ridiculous. Putin is not really a working man“, He added.

Recalling the time he worked with Putin, Pavlovsky said he has some regrets.

“What I regret is that I turned off my analyst brain during that time and somehow donated ‘ownership of my brain to the Kremlin and Putin‘”, He explained.

“I now realize that I should have had a broader perspective on the issues, that I should have known the features of the system we were building. Putin is a child of this system. Putin will leave, one way or another, but the system will stay”./ REL

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