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Although he announced the start of the offensive in Ukraine on February 24, Vladimir Putin has always insisted that his troops are conducting a “special military operation” in the neighboring country.
Western officials and analysts believe this could change on May 9, a symbolic day for Russia, with an open declaration of war that will give Putin the opportunity to expand his campaign.
CNN explains that May 9, known as “Victory Day” inside Russia, commemorates the country’s victory over the Nazis in 1945. This day is marked by a military parade in Moscow, and Russian leaders traditionally stand over Vladimir Lenin’s tomb in Red Square. to observe it.
“May 9 was created to appear in front of the local crowd, to intimidate the opposition and to please the dictator of the time”told James CNN, James Nixey, director of the Russia-Eurasia Program at Chatham House.
Western officials have long believed that Putin would use the symbolic significance and propaganda value of the day to proclaim either a military achievement in Ukraine, or a major escalation of hostilities, or both.
Another option for Putin is to pass Russia’s mobilization law, which could be used to launch a general or partial military mobilization “in cases of aggression against the Russian Federation or a direct threat of aggression.”
This would allow the government not only to mobilize troops, but also to put the country’s economy in a “state of war.”
Mobilization could mean extending recruitment for soldiers currently in the armed forces, recruiting reservists, or bringing in men of combat age who have had military training.
However, according to him, it may still be possible for Putin to pass the mobilization law without formally declaring war on Ukraine.
Other options include annexing the breakaway territories of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, sending a major push for southern Odessa, or declaring full control of the southern port city of Mariupol. There is also evidence that Russia may plan to declare and annex a “people’s republic” in the southeastern city of Kherson.
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