Russia-West / Southeast Europe Conflict Between Rejection and Loyalty

“The United States and the United Kingdom are there to show strength, Germany, France and Italy are emphasizing dialogue, and a third group around Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia is seeking to stay out of the troop conflict,” said Stefan Meister, an expert on German Foreign Policy Association, DGAP for DW. Normally, Germany should be a link between these groups, but this is missing at the moment, due to the weakness of the leadership in the EU. “To this is added the weakening of populism, Trump and Brexit. “Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to use this to negotiate a new security order in Europe, without the US,” said the expert on Eastern Europe. In this situation, the countries of southeastern Europe, members of NATO play an important role.

Stefan Meister

Croatia: “In case of escalation withdrawal?”

And it is from this region that strange tones are heard. Croatian President Zoran Milanovic provoked reactions in late January with his statement, when he announced his country’s withdrawal in the event of a conflict with Ukraine. “If it comes to escalation, we will withdraw until the last Croatian soldier,” Milanovic said in Zagreb, without specifying what it means that there are no Croatian soldiers stationed in Ukraine. The Croatian government responded immediately. “The president is not talking about Croatia, but about himself. “We are and remain a loyal member of NATO,” said Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Grlic Radman.

The interesting thing about this threat from the Croatian president was that neither NATO nor the US have requested any military engagement from Croatia. “, Explains Filip Milacic from the Friedrich Ebert Foundation for DW. “Here it seems that the president is using the nationalist card, calling Milorad Dodik, the president of the Bosnian Serbs, a ‘partner’ and feeding the Croatian nationalists to realize their dreams of a new border with a Russian-backed Bosnia.”

History as a “lobbyist” in Bulgaria

In an appearance on Bulgarian television BTV on February 1, Russian Ambassador Elenoroa Mitrofanova made it very clear what Russia wants from NATO: withdrawing across borders in 1997, that is, withdrawing NATO troops and bases in countries like Romania and Bulgaria. Formally these countries can remain NATO member countries, but only formally.

Bulgarian Defense Minister Stefan Janev can at least get used to the idea. As early as December 2021, the new Prime Minister Kiril Petkov had to publicly rebuke his minister, when he on Facebook spoke out against the transfer of NATO troops to Bulgaria. At a parliamentary session in January, Janev demanded that “we stop reading the foreign press and speculating. We must be Bulgarianophiles in the sense of our Bulgarian national interests. ” According to Janev, only NATO troops should be stationed in Bulgaria if they are to be stationed.

The emphasis on national interests has an internal political background. Since entering parliament in December 2021, Renaissance Party nationalists have pushed the government forward. Ambassador Mitrofanova also knows the position of pro-Russian Bulgarian nationalists. “Russia has an influence on Bulgaria, our common history. “She is the most important lobbyist, the most important influencer of our relations.”

Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov

60% support in Romania

The situation is different in Romania, which along with Germany and Poland, one of the countries where there are American troops and NATO troops. According to a survey by the INSCOP Research Institute, NATO enjoys the greatest trust among Romanians compared to countries (including the US, China, Germany) or international organizations (including the EU). “Additional NATO troops are not only welcome, but also political capital for the government,” said Sorin Ionita, a political scientist and think tank at the Expert Group in Bucharest. “Even nationalists dare not speak out against it.”

“Putin’s dog”

The focus of the relocation of NATO troops is also Hungary, which has a common border with Ukraine, like Romania. Prime Minister Viktor Orban has had a “special relationship” with Russia for years. His public admiration for Putin and his rejection of sanctions against Russia have earned him the nickname “Putin’s dog.” In early February, Orban went to Moscow for a “peace mission,” he said. But in fact the focus was on gas supplies, which Hungary currently receives below market value, and Russian participation in the expansion of the Paks nuclear power plant. Budapest avoids discussions on Hungary’s greater NATO engagement.

Delicate balancing act on the Bosphorus

A rather complex relationship with Russia has a strategically important NATO country, Turkey. In the war in Syria, Putin and President Erdogan cooperated, in Libya they supported various factions. Erdogan initially ignored NATO with the purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, later Ankara supplied Ukraine with military drones. Like Germany, Hungary or Bulgaria, Turkey is dependent on Russian gas or oil. “This is a delicate act of balancing for Ankara. Erdogan has a special connection with Ukraine and will support it and NATO. “On the other hand, he should not anger Putin enough to turn off the gas tap or seek revenge in Syria,” Asli Aydintasbas told DW European Council on Foreign Relations.

Filip Milacic

Putin’s offer to the Balkan elites

“Unlike the West, Russia knows what it wants in Eastern Europe. “The restoration of power and areas of influence it lost in 1991,” British British Eastern Europe expert Timothy Garton Ash told the Guardian. To achieve this, the Kremlin has especially used cheap gas and nationalism in Southeast Europe as a strategy. Filip Milacic adds that “Russia offers to the nationalist elites in the Western Balkans what the West does not offer: the promise to change the borders in the region.”

But neither cheap gas, nor nationalism and lack of unity, will be enough to divide NATO in case of conflict, balances Stefan Meister. “The US as a leading power can achieve what they want, NATO is relatively unique in terms of threat, and even if it happens that small states leave, they in the event of a crossroads will not question the allegiance to the alliance. “Weapons will be provided, troops will be strengthened, and time will be gained against Russia.”

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