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The Russian government wants a neutral Ukraine, modeled on the Swedish or Austrian model, an idea thrown in mid-March in one of the rounds of negotiations as a way out of the war.
“This is an option that is being discussed and can be seen as a definite compromise,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at the time. But while Ukraine is clearly aiming for NATO membership, can its neutrality really be achieved? At the end of World War II, Austria, like Germany, was conquered by the four victorious powers. The Soviet Union agreed to withdraw only because Austria pledged “permanent neutrality” in an agreement signed in 1955. Leos Müller, a historian at Stockholm University, told DW that in the case of Vienna, “neutrality came from above, through a the treaty between the great powers ”.
Unlike Austria, Sweden chose its own neutrality. He has been in power for more than 200 years, as the country had to hand over to Moscow what was then Finland in the war against Russia in 1809. Finland itself gained independence in 1917, and has been able to preserve it. this after two wars against the Soviet Union during World War II. In all three cases, however, over the years, neutrality has been weakening.
Although they have not joined any military alliance, they have joined the EU, which has a common foreign and security policy with military elements. Especially the two border countries with Russia, Sweden and Finland, are now seeking military cooperation with NATO. Therefore, many experts think that neutrality would not work for Ukraine and say that other countries or organizations, such as the US, Russia or NATO, should guarantee this neutrality and protect it in case of attack, only that this requires the functioning of international law and agreements, which Moscow is currently violating all.
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