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Merkel was not too critical of Serbia slipping into a dictatorship. The new German government must commit to more democracy in the BP region, writes Southeast European expert Florian Bieber.
Over the past two weeks, thousands of Serbs have taken to the streets, two Saturdays in a row, and blocked highways, bridges and important road points to protest a law that would facilitate expropriations. Background: The international concern Rio Tinto seeks to build a giant lithium mine in western Serbia with potentially fatal consequences for the environment. The concern is supported there by the regime of Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic. Footage of the demonstrations in late November showed masked troops acting against the demonstrators. Apparently they had been sent to him before by the government.
These images are reminiscent of the time when, five years ago, masked men with machines demolished houses in central Belgrade to make way for the new Belgrade Waterfront project. Problems with funding, with a lack of transparency in agreements with the UAE have meanwhile deformed the Sava coast with those tall buildings. Troops ready for violence also defended the portrait of former Bosnian Serb General Ratko Mladic, which was suddenly painted on a wall in Belgrade. The hooligans eliminated any attempt by the Belgrade people, their colleagues there, even mine, to remove the honor paid to the criminal convicted of war crimes. These young people wearing “hoodies” are those who often shout in stadiums and have long been a supporter of the Vucic regime.
Prestigious projects, international support
Fear is felt in Serbia. There are almost no independent media in the country, critics are muddied and the opposition is accused of national treason. If I criticize the government in Serbia, I am considered an “Albanian lobbyist”. In such a climate there are not many people who dare to express their dissatisfaction openly. That’s why the current environmental protests against the lithium project are so encouraging. They are important because they take place not only in Belgrade, but also in other smaller cities, where access to critical attitudes is more difficult.
At the same time, it is fatal that many Serbs believe, and not so unjustly, that Vucic can count on the support of the West, especially Germany. Many suspect that former Federal Chancellor Angela Merkel supported the lithium mine. However, the raw material for electric vehicle batteries “made in Germany” must be produced somewhere. The Serbian president manages to secure international support with such prestigious projects.
Slide of Serbia with German support
Just as non-transparently as the lithium project, it seems that the construction of the metro in Belgrade is being done by a French consortium. Investors from China and the UAE with impenetrable “deals” can own important factories and land in Belgrade. Russia on the other hand is allowed to dominate the energy sector. This game is not just about economic influence, environmental destruction and corruption, but also about the credibility of the European Union. Russia and China have no interest in democracy and the rule of law. But in Germany these should not be forgotten so quickly. Meanwhile, you can rightly say that Serbia has slipped into a dictatorship. And this was done with German support. Angela Merkel has always supported the Serbian president. So a few days before his election as president in April 2017 she received him at the chancellery office in Berlin. Rightly the photos of the meeting were seen as supporting the candidate.
Ten years of mediation, no solution
The new German government would now have the opportunity for a fresh start in German policy in the Western Balkans. The non-critical attitude towards the person and his rule encouraged Vuiqiiq to further flog the media. Meanwhile, all major Serbian media outlets are lined up in line with the government. Out of 168 municipalities in the country, the ruling party and its allies control 161 of them, in addition to all state institutions without distinction.
For a long time, Germany and the EU had the illusion that Vucic was the ideal partner for a compromise with Kosovo. But even after 10 years of mediation, the EU has not come close to a solution. Instead, Vucic showed three years ago what he wants, namely border changes. He approached this goal dangerously, also thanks to the support of former President Donald Trump, several EU countries and former EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini. Fortunately, Merkel was not shaken by her conviction.
Germany is not seen as an ally for more democracy
Nevertheless, Vucic can live very well with the status quo. It is naive to hope for an autocrat like him, that one day he will come and make a compromise for Kosovo. Here, it is important that the new Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, maintains a more critical stance and thus restores the trust of Serbian citizens in the EU. At a time when in the past protests in Serbia and other Western Balkan countries I have always seen EU flags and pro-European messages, now these seem to be disappearing more and more and the messages are extinguished.
Many see Germany and the EU as guardians of the status quo, not as allies for more democracy. Even when European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen during her visit to Belgrade two months ago praised government reforms, the EU became less credible. After all, the shy critical attitude of the EU and Germany hurts the people in Serbia, who increasingly feel left in the mud. It is therefore encouraging that the new agreement of the German governing coalition seeks to strengthen the rule of law in the EU. This clarity can also help the integration process of the Western Balkans region.
Nationalism not to be rewarded
The new German government must have not only more clarity, but also the courage to set in motion the frozen membership process. The coalition agreement outlines the existing goals of German and EU policy towards the Western Balkans – a reopening of negotiations with Albania and northern Macedonia, which is currently blocked by Bulgaria, a visa liberalization with Kosovo blocked by the Netherlands and France, and dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo. All good intentions, but the question is whether the new German government will invest enough political capital and energy to really move them forward.
Continuing the current stance would be fatal, because nothing happens except well-intentioned statements. On the one hand, Germany, together with EU countries, must act more clearly and energetically towards those members who block the accession process. The Bulgarian blockade in particular requires a clear united stance of the other 26 member states. Bulgaria urges Northern Macedonia to recognize its language and history as a variant of Bulgarian. This is the nationalism that the EU must overcome rather than reward it.
An veto by an EU member state against the start of membership talks on this basis is shameful for the EU’s credibility. Germany needs to convince skeptics about visa liberalization for Kosovo. There are partners in the EU and the US for such a clear line, but without the active participation of Germany there will be no success. The first test for the German government, which will show how it will implement the demand for an agreement on democracy and the rule of law, is the Western Balkans.
Florian Bieber is Professor of History and Politics at the Karl-Franzen University in Graz. He coordinates the Balkans in Europe Policy Advisory Group (BiEPAG), a policy consulting initiative committed to the democratization and EU integration of the Western Balkans./DW/
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