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Sunday’s election in France will determine whether incumbent pro-European president Emmanuel Macron or far-right politician Marine Le Pen will run the European Union’s second-largest economy over the next five years.
Opinion polls favor Macron’s victory in second term. His lead has improved since the two candidates qualified for the run-off in the first round of elections, which was held on April 10th.
However, current polls put Macron at 54-56 per cent of the vote, compared to 66.1 per cent of the vote won in the 2017 election, when Le Pen had the same opponent.
Le Pen’s victory cannot be ruled out, although it is less likely.
What will be crucial?
Macron and Le Pen confronted each other in a single televised debate, which was held Wednesday night. Le Pen’s poor performance in the 2017 debate is said to have played a big role in her loss. This time it remains to be seen.
Who do the voters not like or who are they most afraid of? None of the candidates has enough traditional supporters. So their key is to convince voters that the other candidate is worse.
What left-wing voters do will be crucial to the outcome.
Macron’s style and policies have upset many leftists and he is expected to find it harder than in 2017 to gain their support.
What happens next?
Whoever wins on Sunday will achieve this after a divisive campaign and perhaps by a small majority. If Macron wins, as polls predict, he will have the second most difficult term. Voters of all walks of life are likely to take to the streets because of his plans to pursue pro-business reforms.
If Le Pen wins, then radical changes in France’s domestic and international policies are expected, while street protests could begin immediately.
Either way, one of the winner’s first challenges will be to win the June parliamentary elections.
What are the key issues for voters?
Purchasing power is the main concern of voters, after the sharp rise in energy prices and inflation. Le Pen has successfully focused her campaign on this issue.
The election campaign started in the middle of the war in Ukraine. Polls have given Macron an initial push, but it has faded.
Polls show voters are dissatisfied with Macron’s economic policy, but unemployment is at its lowest level in several years and respondents do not think any of his opponents would do better.
The way Macron handled the coronavirus pandemic may also play a role.
When is the winner known?
Voting begins Sunday, April 24 at 6 p.m.
They end at 18:00, then exit polls are published and French television releases the winner’s photo.
Official results start coming out in the evening, but exit polls are usually reliable./REL
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