Is Ukraine losing the war?

Russia is on the verge of capturing the city and between 100-200 Ukrainian soldiers are dying every day. In the southern Kherson region, Ukraine is making progress in counterattacking against Russian positions. Russian troops are reported to have started moving towards Kharkiv again.

With heavy Russian artillery and missile strikes, but also with changes in Russian tactics and military command, the course of the war is turning against Ukraine, and Kiev has said that the only way to turn the tide in its favor is to take as much faster western weapons.

Is Ukraine losing the war? The answer to this question is not so simple.

“If by ‘loss’ you mean that Ukraine does not seem to be able to regain its territory and expel Russia from its territory, then yes, this is a fair assessment; “They are losing.”

Other experts also say that it all depends on how “loss” is defined.

“It may seem pessimistic, but in reality, if you look at the map, you look at Donbas, you can not find much change, despite the large concentration of Russian troops,” said Mykhaylo Samus, deputy director of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies. , based in Kiev. “Ukrainian forces are conducting a very effective defense.”

“On the contrary, what we can say is that Russia has failed,” Samus said.

“Practically, in terms of strategic thinking, it has already lost the war because they started the war on February 24 with great expectations. They planned to take Kiev within a few days and it was a disastrous process, they made a lot of wrong decisions in their operations. “We can definitely say that Russia, in strategic terms, has failed,” he said.

‘We need quick help’

During the first phase of the war after the start of the large-scale occupation on February 24, Russia failed to achieve its main priorities, which were to take control of the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, and potentially oust the Ukrainian Government.

Most Western experts were surprised by the deep problems within the Russian military that the offensive highlighted, but also by the effective defense of Ukrainian troops.

Russia then withdrew most of its units from northern Kiev and shifted its resources to capture the port city of Mariupol, which was reduced to rubble before the battle for the city ended on 22 May. Russia also made changes to its military command, appointing a single general to a unified command and concentrating resources on gaining more territory in eastern and northeastern Ukraine.

After a poor start, it now appears that Russia’s battlefield tactics, slowly and steadily, are working. For now, anyway.

After weeks of brutal house-to-house and street-to-street fighting in Severodonjeck, the city, which before the war had close to 100,000 inhabitants, by June 15 was almost entirely controlled by Russian troops, including the city center.

Luhansk Military Governor Serhiy Hayday said on June 14 that the last bridge over the Siverski Donjeck River, which leads to the smaller town of Lisicask, had been destroyed, making it impossible to evacuate and cut off supply routes for the last troops and civilians still found in Severodonjeck.

Many of those still inside the city are found in a chemical plant, raising fears of a similar siege that occurred in Mariupol in the last days before the city fell under Russian control.

Senior Ukrainian officials in recent weeks have issued disturbing warnings about the pace of the fighting and the damage being done to Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian officials have been vocal in calling for more Western weapons to be delivered as soon as possible, which they hope will happen after the Contact Group on Ukraine meeting in Brussels on June 15.

“To be direct: to end the war we need the equality of heavy weapons,” Mykhaylo Podolyak, chief adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a Twitter post.

“We are waiting for the decision,” he added.

“We need urgent help,” said Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov in an interview with The Economist this week, “because the cost of any delay is measured in Ukrainian blood.”

A front line of 2,400 kilometers
In a statement posted on the Telegram on June 12, General Valeriy Zaluzhny, chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, also called for Western weapons, saying the front line where Russian and Ukrainian forces are facing is more than 2,400 kilometers long. .

“They use artillery in bulk and, unfortunately, they have a tenfold advantage of armaments,” Zaluzhny said. “Despite everything, we are holding positions. There, every meter of Ukrainian land is drenched in blood, not only ours, but also that of the invaders. “The situation is particularly difficult in the town of Severodonjeck.”

Since the first week of April, when Russian forces moved from the districts north of Kiev, Russian forces have made gradual progress in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, which make up the Donbas. Western officials have said that by August or September, the Russians will be able to take control of the Donbas region.

Sivatoirski and Svilodarski in Donetsk and Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk are among the towns and villages that Russian forces have taken control of.

Ukrainian forces are desperately trying to prevent Russian forces from taking control of the highway that runs from the southwest and northeast, respectively, from Bakmut to Lisyansk. The complete closure of this road, which Ukrainian officials have described as a “road of life”, would allow Russian forces to surround Severodonjecki.

Further east, Russian troops have now recaptured territory after being ousted from Kharkiv – Ukraine’s second largest city – in early May, the British Ministry of Defense said.

And in the south, in the Herson region, located north of occupied Crimea, there are mixed reports as to whether a Ukrainian counterattack has produced any significant results.
Russian forces engaged in fierce fighting with Russian forces on June 13 northwest of Herson, near David Brid, Ukrainian commanders said.

“The enemy is still fighting, but our units are gradually forcing him to leave the positions and testing the strength of the second and third lines of defense, and further retreat in some cases,” Ukraine’s southern command said in a statement. declarations.

At the current pace of operations, Ukrainian officials are trying to simply find bullets and shells for their weapons. Most of the motion that Ukraine needs is of Soviet-era designs, which the West has few and does not produce, unlike Russia.

“The United States is looking around the world to find Soviet ammunition to give to the Ukrainians,” Mark Cancian, a retired U.S. Navy colonel, told REL earlier this month. “And I have doubts that the countries that will sell us these types of ammunition are decreasing.”

Ukraine is also seeking more Western weapons beyond those sent to Ukraine even before the February 24 invasion.

The largest supplier is the United States, which has said it has provided nearly $ 4.6 billion worth of weapons since the invasion began, including thousands of anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, drones and ammunition.

‘Mutual exhaustion’

Recently, armaments have become heavier, more powerful, and more capable of hitting Russian targets from a greater distance, including NATO-standard 155-millimeter artillery systems, such as the CAESAR. made in France and howitzers made in Poland, KRAB. Ukraine is also equipped with Soviet-style T-72 tanks.

The US and Britain are currently shipping several different types of missile launcher systems, including high-precision ammunition.

But at the moment, Washington is sending only four high-mobility artillery systems, known as HIMARS, which means their ability to change the course of the war may be limited.

Boston said Russian progress is slow and its rate of fire from artillery shells and missiles is not stable.
“There are tactical victories on the horizon [për Rusinë]”But I do not see any way for a strategic victory,” said Boston, who is currently an analyst at Rand Corporation, a US military-funded institute.

“I think what we are going for is towards mutual exhaustion. “Anything Russia tries to do to inflict more losses on Ukrainian forces will be a very costly effort,” he said.

“In general, Ukraine has a chance, but this chance is linked to weapons,” Samus told Radio Free Europe. “If we have weapons, we will have a chance to ‘liberate’ some of the territories under Russian control, as they were before the February 24 invasion.”

“If that happens then it would mean that [presidenti rus, Vladimir] Putin will have problems. Big problems ”./ REL

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