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In 1832, the great cholera pandemic struck Paris. In just a few months, the disease killed 20,000 of the city’s population of 650,000.
Most of the fatalities took place in the heart of the city, more poor workers living in scandalous conditions, drawn to Paris by the Industrial Revolution. The spread of the disease increased tensions in the social classes, as the rich blamed the poor for the spread of the disease and the poor thought they were being poisoned. Enmity and anger quickly turned to the unpopular King.
The burial of General Lamarque – a pandemic victim and defender of popular causes – sparked a major anti-government demonstration in the barricaded streets: scenes also immortalized in Victor Hugo’s novel Les Miserables. Historians have argued that the epidemic’s interaction with pre-existing tensions was a major cause of what came to be known as the Paris Uprising of 1832, which in turn could explain subsequent government repression and public revolt in the French capital in the 19th century. of the 19th.
Parallelism with the times we are living in
A recent letter from IMF staff uses an index based on press coverage of social unrest to create a Reported Index of Social Unrest. This ensures a steady monthly mass of social unrest for 130 countries from 1985 to date.
Using this index, the IMF staff survey finds that countries with the most frequent and severe epidemics also experienced greater turmoil on average.
During and immediately after a pandemic, social ills in the form of riots may not show up quickly. Indeed, humanitarian crises are likely to hamper the communication and transportation needed to organize large-scale protests. Moreover, public opinion can favor cohesion and solidarity in these times. In some cases, current regimes can take advantage of an emergency to consolidate power and suppress dissent.
The COVID-19 experience is consistent with this historical model, so far. In fact, the number of major riot events around the world has dropped to its lowest level in almost five years. Notable exceptions include the United States and Lebanon, but even in these cases, the largest protests relate to issues that may be exacerbated but not directly triggered by COVID-19.
But looking beyond the immediate consequences, the risk of social unrest increases over a longer period. Using information on the types of riots, the IMF staff study focuses on the form riots typically take after an epidemic. This analysis shows that, over time, the risk of riots and anti-government demonstrations increases.
Moreover, the study finds evidence of an increased risk of a major government crisis – an event that threatens to overthrow the government and that usually occurs in the two years following a severe epidemic. If history is a predictor, unrest may recur as the pandemic is eased.
Threats may be greater when the crisis exposes or exacerbates past problems, such as lack of trust in institutions, poor governance, poverty, or inequality.
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