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It seems that the Russian government of Vladimir Putin has issued signals of de-escalation of the situation in relation to the threat it had created after the gathering of over 100 thousand soldiers on the border with Ukraine.
Putin announced the partial withdrawal of some troops from the border, although it was difficult to confirm the veracity of the news, many European leaders saw the need to continue negotiations to find a diplomatic solution. Of course, the possibility of Putin deciding to invade Ukraine is still very real.
Some analysts say Putin’s main concern is Ukraine’s rapprochement with the West, which could materialize with NATO membership, the main military alliance that keeps Western nations united.
The latter have been aware for years that Ukraine’s entry into NATO takes a long time, despite the fact that the membership date was announced as close in 2008 due to an obligation of the then US President George W. Bush . Russia considers Ukraine a fundamental part of its sphere of influence, and according to some analysts, the escalation of tensions in recent days is aimed precisely at obtaining a guarantee from Western countries.
So, some people think that the way to drastically reduce tensions and achieve a de-escalation of the situation goes precisely through the relations established between NATO and Ukraine, but also the need to find a balance between the needs of Russia and those of West, which in any case look very far away.
The latest phone conversation between Putin and Biden reportedly focused on a list of concessions the United States could make to Russia to avoid further escalation of the situation, but such a list was not disclosed.
For days, analysts and international policy experts have been wondering what, in short, could be the diplomatic way out of the tensions of today.
In foreign policy, Atlantic Council analyst Emma Ashford wrote that Russia and the West could “find a way to commit to preventing Ukraine’s membership in NATO in the short term.” A pledge not to send troops or to build NATO bases in Ukraine, or a moratorium on military cooperation between Ukraine and NATO, which could be a way to give Russia what it wants and NATO without relinquishing open-door politics, where any country can join the alliance if it agrees to abide by its security principles. Or the West might believe that Putin never thinks of invading Ukraine, but the situation got out of hand and that he just needs a way out of trouble without being ashamed, given that his credibility with the people has come falling in recent years.
However, it remains very unclear whether Russia expects the West to make a turnaround, especially after announcing the partial withdrawal of military troops, or whether these days will serve to reduce tensions and achieve a more relaxing climate.
Three days ago, Putin and Lavrov spoke specifically about a document that would include some demands and that would seek solutions from the West. In this regard, a spokesman for Putin, told the New York Times that Russia will announce when they will be made public, but such a thing for now is in the hands of the Russian President.
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