Europe’s gas supply stalemate, is Russia exerting political pressure?

But Yamal is just one element of a complex network of gas infrastructure, created not only by energy needs but also by broader economic and political interests, including disputes between Russia and Ukraine.

The pipeline, opened in 1994, traverses more than 2,000 kilometers to Germany from the city of Torjok in central Russia, transit through Belarus and Poland.

It sends 30 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe every year, making it one of the most important means of supplying Russian gas to the continent.

Russia sells gas to Germany at a lower price than Poland, in part to offset higher long-distance transit tariffs.

But this means that it is more convenient for Poland to buy Russian gas from Germany.

Some of the gas sold by German traders in Poland flows directly into Polish territory, or if that is not enough, the pipeline could also operate in the opposite direction to send more gas to Germany’s eastern neighbor.

Since December 21, the pipeline has been operating in the opposite direction, with gas flowing east to Poland from the German border, according to data from the management company Gascade, first from AFP.

This means that in recent days, Germany itself has not received gas through the Yamal pipeline.

Meanwhile, Russian gas continues to flow to Europe through other major pipelines such as Nord Stream I and TurkStream.

It is not uncommon for the Yamal pipeline to operate in the opposite direction for short periods, but in the latter case it coincides with political tension over fears that Russia could intervene in Ukraine.

Political pressure

In Germany, the government has said that in case of any “escalation”, it will go against another pipeline, Nord Stream 2, which is still waiting for the green light from the authorities.

Several European countries, such as Poland and Ukraine, have accused Moscow and Russian energy company Gazprom of cutting off European gas supplies to put political pressure amid these tensions.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the change in gas flow through the Yamal pipeline is simply due to fluctuations in demand and has denied any political motives.

Gazprom, for its part, called the allegations that it was not sending enough gas to Europe “absolutely unfounded and unacceptable” and blamed Germany for using its reserves to supply neighboring Poland.

Berlin on Monday denied any intervention on its part. “It is not the government that decides on gas flows, but the market, the traders,” said the Ministry of Economy and Climate.

George Zachmann, an energy specialist for the Brussels-based Bruegel Institute, says Gazprom may even be “favoring its own pipelines” over those it does not control 100%, such as the Yamal pipeline.

Low reserves

A spokeswoman for the German Ministry of Economy and Climate told AFP that “security of supply continues to be guaranteed”. But Berlin, which has “relatively low” gas reserves with reservoirs filled to only 53 percent capacity, may soon face “difficulties,” according to Christophe Bonnery, president of the Association of Energy Economists.

“If the contracts are respected, there will be no problems until at least March,” said Mr Zachmann.

But “if Russia can not or will not supply gas for technical or other reasons, then supplies may fall.” The dispute comes as gas prices have quadrupled since the beginning of the year. The increase is thought to be partly due to a particularly cold winter and an increase in activity associated with the economy’s post-coronavirus recovery.

Given that 40% of the gas consumed in Europe comes from Russia, it is suspected that Moscow has taken advantage of tensions in the world market to reduce supply and raise prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in September called on Russia to be a “reliable supplier” and to send more gas to Europe./VOA

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