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Ever since Emmanuel Macroni became the presidential candidate in the 2017 election that brought him to power, his main declared opponent has been the far-right Marine Le Pen.
His party devised strategies to defeat the Le Pen Rassemblement National movement, formerly Front National, in local, regional and national elections. That did not stop the far right from gaining ground in the last presidential election, which Macroni won by a narrow margin five years ago.
But today, it is not the far right that is causing Macron the most trouble, but the far left.
Macron’s party and its allies have won a majority of seats in the National Assembly, in the French parliament, but lack a few dozen parliamentarians to reach an absolute majority.
Le Pen’s party has increased the number of its seats by about ten times, from only eight it had in 2017.
However, it is the New Popular Ecological and Social Alliance, known as the Nupes, under the auspices of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, the ultra-leftist leader, that came in second.
The Left Alliance, which includes the Socialists, Communists and Greens, lured voters with environmental and social measures, even promising “jobs guaranteed for all”. The platform is also protectionist – vowing to nationalize energy giants and reserve public tenders for French companies – and Eurosceptic, as it recommends breaking some EU rules. It is also in favor of leaving the international defense alliance, NATO.
France is not used to forming coalitions
Not having an absolute majority in Parliament would not necessarily be tragic in other countries like Germany, where parties are used to forming coalitions and working together.
In France, this is likely to be more problematic.
The last time such a situation occurred was between 1988 and 1991, under former Socialist President François Mitterrand, when his party lacked 14 seats to reach an absolute majority of 289 deputies.
His government had to get support from right-wing and left-wing parties to pass the laws. However, finding a compromise proved so difficult that the socialist government conditioned the new measures by seeking a no-confidence vote 28 times in three years.
But this possibility of a vote of no confidence, provided for in Article 49.3 of the constitution, has since been limited to its use. Macroni and his government can implement it only once in the annual parliamentary session and for the annual budget vote.
Macron could face “parliamentary guerrilla”
The re-elected president and his ministers must seek support across the political spectrum.
They must also count on opposite winds from the far-left alliance, which opposes market-based measures. Nupesi will use all possible means to block and prolong discussions in parliament.
The 17 MPs of the La France Insoumise party have already done so for the past five years. With the left-wing alliance gaining about 10 times as many seats under the leadership of the strong left, Macron’s government may fear what observers call a “parliamentary guerrilla war.”
Macroni himself said before the second round of voting that “nothing would be worse than adding French disorder to a situation of international disorder.” His ministers warned against an “ungovernable France”.
A hard road to run, with a glimmer of hope?
But the new distribution of seats is also likely to force President Macron, who has a reputation for making his own decisions, to take more into account the views of left-leaning voters. It could be an opportunity for him and his government to learn the art of compromise and appease some citizens who currently feel neglected by the capital’s top politicians.
Radical French voters – from the far right and the far left – could see their views reflected in the debates in the French parliament.
This can help heal the country from some of its extremist views and unite people.
A strong and united France would be a good thing. For the country itself and for the world./DW
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