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Believe it or not, 37 days have passed since Vladimir Putin launched an unprovoked and premeditated attack on Ukraine. This attack has been shocking in every sense of the word. And it is not at all surprising, as we have seen this strategy before. We first saw the aerial photos of the secret services.
Now we see Putin trying to implement his plan. But it is failing. And his Plan B, has been more barbaric attacks against civilians and ukr citiesorinase. It’s with that it is clear that he plays with different moral and legal rules. Many Ukrainians and Russians have already lost their lives.
And beyond the victims, many, many others’ lives have been ruined. The UN appreciates that in just over 1 month, more than 10 million people have already left their homes. It is a humanitarian crisis that should never have happened. And alas it is not over yet.
That said, it is becoming increasingly clear that Putin has not properly assessed the situation. It is clear that he misjudged the resistance of the Ukrainian people. He underestimated the reaction of the Western coalition to his actions. Underestimated the economic consequences of the sanctions regime.
He also overestimated his army’s ability to secure a quick victory. We have seen Russian soldiers – badly armed and in poor morale – refuse to obey orders, sabotage their equipment, and even accidentally shoot down their planes.
Although we believe Putin’s advisers are afraid to tell him the truth, what is happening, and the extent of these misconceptions, should be clear to the regime. This week, the Russian Defense Ministry publicly stated that it would drastically reduce combat operations around Kiev and a city in the north.
It seemed as if the Russians were forced to make a significant change in their strategy. But then the attacks continued in both of these cities. Mixed messages or deliberate misinformation, we will see below which is the truth.
It all adds up to the strategic miscalculations that Putin was warned about by our western leaders. This has become his personal struggle, at the cost of being paid by innocent people in Ukraine and increasingly even by ordinary Russians.
Of course, the big irony is that with his actions, Putin has causedorr exactly what he was trying to avoid: a Ukraine with a renewed sense of its nationality, a NATO that is more united today than ever, and a global coalition of nations condemning his actions.
A little more than 1 month after the start of the war, it is still too early to list all the consequences of this crisis. But I will describe some aspects that stand out to me the most. And I will start with the importance of the information war. Russia wrote the hybrid war manual. State media, online media and influence agents are being used to hide real motives, and to justify military action. We have seen them the Russians use this manual in Syria and many other countries as well. Their purpose is to spread false information.
To sow distrust of facts and reinforce false narratives. It also aims to guarantee not–exposure to the Russian media of what is really happening in Ukraine. We know that Putin’s military campaign has many problems: low troop morale, serious logistical problems, and a high death toll.
Their command and control is in complete chaos. We have also seen Putin lie to his countrymen in an attempt to hide the incompetence of the military. And all this means, that he is attempting a brutal control of the media and internet access.
He demands the suppression of any opposition voice, and is making major investments in state propaganda and the secret services.
But he still made the wrong calculations. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s information war has proved far more effective. His campaign looks much more versatile, with lots of platforms, multimedia, and highly tailored to diverse audiences.
And his messages are backed by information campaigns around the world. In Britain, the government has set up a special agency that identifies and opposes the Kremlin’s misinformation to international audiences.
It is clear that Russia is using foreign mercenaries and fighters to increase the number of its forces. This includes the Wagner group, which has been active in Ukraine since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
The group functions as a shadow branch of the Russian army, engaging in the most dangerous operations. In fact these soldiers are likely to be used as cannon fodder in an attempt to limit Russian military losses.
Meanwhile we have seen groups of hackers who have pledged allegiance to both parties. We have seen businesses all over the world distance themselves from the Russian economy. We have seen the commitment of large companies to ensure the functioning of the Internet in Ukraine, or to unmask misinformation.
On the other hand, Putin’s aggression has revived NATO. The war has provoked an unprecedented international response. 141 countries condemned it in the UN General Assembly. Countries across Europe are overturning their decades-old approaches to defense policy; investing even more in this sector.
Many other countries far from the region like Australia and Japan have lined up against Russia.
These elections will affect the global order for decades to come. Moscow has strategic choices entering into a close alliance with Beijing as the latter challenges Washington.
In the current crisis, Russia sees China as an arms supplier, as a technology provider, as a market for its hydrocarbons, and as a means of circumventing sanctions. We know that both Presidents Xi and Putin attach great importance to their personal relationships. But the calculations Xi makes are more nuanced. He has not publicly condemned the invasion, reckoning that this situation helps him oppose the US. And having an eye on Taiwan’s recapture, China does not want to do anything that could limit its ability to act in the future.
Russia understands that in the long run, China will become increasingly strong militarily and economically. Some of their interests will conflict; and Russia can be drawn out of the equation. And it is just as clear that a China that wants to dictate the rules for a new global government does not feel so comfortable from being in close alliance with a regime that deliberately and illegally disregards all current norms.
Against the background of historical change, a new global security architecture is emerging. All this change will take decades. But what I can be clear about now is that how we approach these challenges will be as important as our response./bota.al
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