China’s vague stance on Ukraine

China’s stance has several reasons; the government wants to limit the damage to its economy as much as possible, maintain relations with economic partners, including Russia and various western countries, and also carefully study what is happening in Ukraine.

The reaction of Western countries to the invasion, among other things, could provide clues to Chinese President Xi Jinping on how things might go if China decides to take military action against Taiwan in the future. Some analysts, in recent days, have wondered whether after Ukraine, the next territory of a democratic country, occupied by a major regime, could be Taiwan.

The ambiguity of China’s attitude towards the ongoing war has been noted by several different analysts, particularly in relation to two factors. The first is that China has not called Putin’s operation in Ukraine an invasion, starting with Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying, who refused to talk about the Russian invasion and moreover condemned it at a press conference that held on Thursday. Chinese state media and television continue to portray Russian aggression in Ukraine as a “special military operation,” just as Putin himself defined the occupation of the neighboring country.

The second case, when the ambiguity of the Chinese position became very clear, was when the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, initially said that China has always respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, but then added that in the concrete case of Ukraine , she acknowledged the complexity of the situation and Russia’s “legitimate security concerns”. In practice, while maintaining some neutrality in expression, China is in fact sharing the Russian version of events, according to which the invasion of Ukraine is a military operation to bring peace to the country.

Such a position, as Evan Feigenbaum of the Carnegie Endowment for International Studies study center explained to Politico, China finds itself trying to achieve some seemingly incompatible goals.

Among them, to ensure that the current crisis damages its economy as little as possible, also because of the sanctions that the US and the EU will choose to impose on Russia, sanctions that can to affect China, if all countries doing business with Russia are affected, China’s economic interests also depend on the possibility of continuing trade with Ukraine, which is, among other things, an important crossing point of the so-called “new way of silk ”, ie the large Chinese investment program for the construction of trade infrastructure, which means an expansion of Chinese influence in the world.

In general, China has every interest in maintaining a positive relationship with the West, which it sees not only as a political rival, but also as an economic partner. On the other hand, China wants to maintain its good relations with Russia and this is a very close relationship between these two countries. Last year, during a meeting in Moscow, Chinese leader Xi Jinping described Putin as “his best friend” and about twenty days ago, when the crisis on the Ukrainian border was reaching its peak, the two countries defined co-operation. their as “infinite”.

Also, China and Russia share the goal of changing the international order, and so some analysts expect that by taking somewhat cautious public positions, China is willing to help Russia, for example, by supporting it economically to withstand massive sanctions. that the United States and the European Union will impose on it in response to the occupation of Ukraine. Among other things, China can offer the Russian economy a way to escape these sanctions, as in recent years it has developed some very effective industries, as Russia has done in part, but it still remains much less economically competitive. see China.

But China’s seemingly cautious stance has another reason, according to various analyzes, China is watching very carefully what is happening in Ukraine, because even with big differences between the two countries, some elements of the current crisis in Ukraine may also apply to Taiwan, which is a small independent island and which China considers its own.

China has claimed its sovereignty on the island for decades, which has a genuine democratic system and a very good economy, and has been self-governing since 1949. For Chinese President Xi Jinping, Taiwan’s reunification with China is an inalienable goal. to whom he has consistently referred in various public speeches.

The American journalist for Asia, Michael Shuman, wrote that a Russian victory in Ukraine could convince Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the future to do the same with Taiwan. This, in turn, explains the reactions of Taiwan itself but also Japan to Putin’s actions in Ukraine.

Taiwan, geographically far from Ukraine, was one of the first countries to publicly condemn the invasion of Ukraine as a violation of the international agreement, and announced immediately, a day after the invasion, that it would join the United States and the European Union in imposing economic sanctions on Russia. Even Japan, concerned about Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands, has shown readiness to impose tough economic sanctions.

top channel