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Massive sanctions against Russia, in an attempt to stop the war in Ukraine, may have had an effect on the Russian economy, but not on the battlefield.
In the third month of the war, Russia has caused Ukraine to relive some of the worst horrors of the 20th century. Thousands killed, millions displaced, entire cities in ruins.
“I do not know what to do. Why did they bomb here? What have we done? “We have done nothing,” Valentina, an elderly woman from the Donbas region of Ukraine, told Reuters.
Occupying Russian forces have bombed residential buildings, hospitals, schools, railway stations. They have besieged cities and collected bodies of people in mass graves.
The Ukrainians, under the leadership of their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and backed by Western military missions, have shown strong resistance. The Russians have failed to capture Kiev, nor to overthrow the government there. Fighting has now focused on eastern Ukraine.
The West has vowed not to get directly involved between the two countries. It is helping Ukraine with weapons, while it has undertaken a series of economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia, in an attempt to force it to withdraw from Ukraine.
Among other things, Western countries have frozen the assets of the Russian Central Bank, blocked several Russian banks from the SWIFT payment system, closed airspace to Russian aircraft, and frozen the assets of over 1,000 individuals, including Kremlin officials and oligarchs.
A number of Western companies, such as Apple, Netflix, Ikea, H&M, McDonalds, Coca-Cola, have also left Russia.
US President Joe Biden, after announcing new sanctions against Moscow in early April, said the pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin would not stop.
“This is the United States and we will take additional steps, in coordination with our allies and partners, to increase economic pressure on Putin,” Biden said.
As a result of the sanctions, the Russian ruble has initially fallen in value, but has recovered over time, mainly due to measures taken by the authorities to support it.
Putin has downplayed the impact of sanctions on Russia, saying they have hurt Western economies.
“They have increased inflation, unemployment and worsened economic dynamics in the US and Europe. “They have reduced the standard of living for Europeans and devalued their savings.”
The West has been subject to sanctions as a means of pressure since World War II. Some countries, including Iran, Syria, North Korea and Venezuela, are currently sanctioned for aggression or violations of international law. However, these punitive measures, historically, have not been effective in changing the regimes or behavior of dictators.
Andre Gerrits, a professor of international studies and global politics at Leiden University in the Netherlands, told Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty (RFE / RL) that sanctions against Russia – no matter how massive – have not changed the Kremlin’s approach to Ukraine.
“Russia has not changed its strategy. The change he made on the battlefield, he did not make because of sanctions. It has been the result of resistance by the Ukrainian army, especially in and around Kiev. Pra, [sanksionet] “They do not yet have a visible effect, but that does not necessarily mean that they will not have political effects in the future.”
According to him, Western pressure against Russia has not reached the limits and there is still room to act.
“We still support Russia. We support it with money, because of the import of Russian gas and oil. We give them more money than we get through sanctions. “Sanctions hurt Russia to a certain extent, but at the same time there are serious gaps.”
“First, we continue to buy energy products from Russia and, second, the sanctions are not complete. Some banks are targeted, others are not. And, most importantly, some large economies are not part of the sanctions regime, including: India, Turkey and of course China. “Therefore, the idea that we in the West may have that we have successfully isolated Russia is not true, it is not real,” Gerrits said.
The United States has banned the import of Russian oil and gas. But the European Union, which gets a quarter of its oil from Russia, as well as 40% of its gas, continues to supply, even though it has vowed to become independent of Russian energy by 2030.
As of April 27, Russia itself has stopped gas leaks in Poland and Bulgaria and has threatened other countries with supply disruptions. The EU has described the move as blackmail.
Professor Gerrits says Europe needs to extend its sanctions on Russian oil and gas. Taisa Markus, a market expert at the University of Illinois, said similarly, but added that the United States should help Europe make that decision.
“It’s very easy for the United States to say that it is banning Russian oil and gas. We are independent in terms of energy and this does not affect us. But for Europe, [ndërprerja e gazit dhe naftës ruse] “It has a big effect, especially on Germany, and it would cause the economy to shrink in different countries.”
Speaking of the Exposition, she expressed confidence that Russia’s gross domestic product would fall sharply this year due to sanctions. She says the Russian people will also face shortages of consumer goods. However, Markus adds, sanctions will not be enough to stop the aggression in Ukraine.
“We will need military and humanitarian support [për Ukrainën] and a strategic anti-disinformation campaign to weaken support for the regime [rus]”, Says Markus.
Public opinion in Russia is mainly informed by state television, which is controlled by the Kremlin and, consequently, justifies – without any basis – the intervention of the Russian army in Ukraine.
Professor Gerrits agrees that sanctions alone will not stop Putin.
“We must continue to provide Ukraine with the necessary military means to effectively resist Russia, because only a protracted war, in which Russia can not achieve its political goals, can cause unrest in society. ruse ”.
“We have seen the first signs, mothers looking for their sons [ushtarë], and do not receive any news from the authorities. “It may then be that some sections of the Russian elite start rethinking their alliances in the Kremlin and questioning whether Putin is still serving their interests.”
Putin’s former economic adviser, Andrei Ilarionov, strongly disagrees. He says the chances of someone from Putin’s circle staging a coup are zero. “Only a European embargo on Russian oil and gas can stop the war,” Ilirianov told Radio Free Europe.
“The situation would change if the West imposed a full embargo on oil and gas imports from Russia. “This, in turn, could influence Putin’s decision to go to war, because he would be left without billions of dollars from the West – the means by which he is financing the invasion of Ukraine,” Ilarionov said.
European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on April 6 that the EU had spent $ 35 billion on Russian energy since the start of the war, while sending $ 1 billion in aid to Ukraine. “Ukraine needs more weapons to fight,” Borrell told the European Parliament.REL
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