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It is commonly called war, but is also being labeled as garbage.
Mountains with remnants of extinct cities, sunk under rubble; millions of refugees who have fled in every direction, without water, food and safe shelter for months; endless grief, pain, incurable wounds and tens of thousands of human limbs that are gone forever, as in a surrealist painting by Salvador Dalì.
Hundreds of billions of dollars of national budgets (taxpayer money, East and West) have been blown up in the form of bullets, bombs and rockets as weapons arsenals are being emptied. And here lies the problem: Once the weapons stockpiles are exhausted, how long will it take to replenish them?
Because it will be the minimum duration of this time, which will indicate whether the attacker will make peace with him regarding the fight he caused. At first glance this seems like a technical detail. It is actually a strategic detail. The London Times explains this very well in an article entitled “Loss of equipment that could prevent Moscow from waging further wars”, analyzing the Russian weapons system.
It cites analyzes by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, according to which Russia’s projected annual output would be 250 tanks and 150 fighter jets. Based on some cross-assessments, thanks to ultramodern Western weapons, Ukraine in these 2 months has destroyed 2 years of Russian production for tanks, and 1 year of production of fighter jets.
Analyzes of Russian missile stockpiles are not clear or conclusive, but Putin is believed to have “spent” military production on Ukrainian cities and populations for several years. So, fortunately for us (but let us remember that this is not a video game, after tens of thousands die on both fronts, they still remain human beings like us!), In the near future even Vladimir Putin will be forced to is spared the use of its very expensive hypersonic missiles (stocks can be reduced by 70 percent), suitable for hitting targets with great accuracy.
And this is also because these super missiles, are equipped with super sophisticated systems, whose components are either under embargo, or are affected by the global response to the trade regime due to the pandemic and due to the war in Ukraine itself.
Even the Ukrainian secret services claim that the production chain of the ultra-modern Russian T-90 and T-14 Armatas tanks has been completely stopped, while that of the less advanced T-72 tanks has suffered a major slowdown. Moreover, this can not be considered impossible, given the information that has been deconspired in the past on major systematic thefts, by Russian oligarchs and military leaders.
It was this dome of loyalists of the Russian autocrat who squandered the vast capital (we are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars) invested by Putin’s direct order in arms modernization, as a kind of reaction to the poor performance of the Russian army in Georgia in 2008. .
Something similar has recently been seen in Ukraine, which has led to a drastic reduction in the objectives of the so-called “Special Operation”. Hence the need for the Russians to recover all recoverable materials from old Soviet-era weapons depots, which undoubtedly brings serious problems to Russian generals who have to deal with obsolete equipment of which soldiers have very little knowledge. .
On the other hand, thanks to Western aid, Ukraine has no problems with supplies on the battlefield, partly due to short supply lines, and partly due to the large disorganization of the logistics departments of the Russian army.
But even for Ukrainians, resisting the Red Army’s major attack will be quite difficult, given that according to President Volodymyr Zelenski himself, 20 days of Western supplies are enough for just 1 week of fighting.
To stem the flow of foreign supplies to Ukraine, the Russians are also rapidly depleting their stocks of precision-guided missiles, trying to hit warehouses and the road and rail infrastructure used to transport materials (spare parts and dismantled kits since -assembled).
But from the point of view of NATO and the West, even the supply of heavy weapons to Kiev (always assuming that they arrive at their destination), without being identified as comrades in this conflict (in reality we are already!), Is not simply a walk.
Therefore, the only trick to avoid direct NATO involvement is to evacuate Soviet-era arms depots and ammunition, which Eastern European countries have in abundance (perhaps by replacing obsolete armored vehicles and aircraft with the most recent ones the West has).
Even models of tanks and cannons that can be used immediately by the Ukrainian army belong to that period. But they will demand millions of shells and bullets for light and heavy weapons, which the West is unable to provide to Kiev, as they have nothing to do with its military-industrial production.
So it’s the usual “cat and mouse” race (identical to many others since World War II), which apparently no one will win. The only hope for peace is for the stalemate to come as soon as possible, forcing both exhausted parties to find an agreement to end this absurd, destructive conflict, to the detriment of those who are officially outside, but especially of those who are victims inside Russia and Ukraine. / “Opinione.it” – Bota.al
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