The conversation that troubled Ukraine, but not only

And this, of course, was not the first time that US President Joe Biden has had a heated conversation with his Ukrainian counterpart about Russia.

Zelenskiy talked 90 minutes on the phone with Biden on December 9th.

The purpose was to discuss the conversation that Biden had previously held with the man who had amassed tens of thousands of soldiers near the border with Ukraine: Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Biden, who has previously ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine in the event of a new invasion, “has reaffirmed the United States’ unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” White House.

Publicly, Putin’s indirect threat of war has to do primarily with Ukraine’s prospect of NATO membership.

But Putin’s warnings also have to do with the seven-year-old conflict in eastern Ukraine. His resolution has been hampered by disagreements over the implementation of the proposed peace treaty, popularly known as the Minsk Agreements.

So what exactly did he say to Biden Zelenskiy? Is he seeking concessions from Kiev, as at least one report has suggested? And, did he promise Putin concessions, at the expense of Ukraine, as at least one other report has suggested?

“This is a big question,” said Orysia Lutsevych, chair of the Ukrainian Forum on Russia and Eurasia Program at the London-based Chatham House Research Institute.

“To be honest, it makes sense to ask this question only from a negotiating perspective, to see what legitimate concessions the Ukrainians are willing to make. This is a question that Ukrainians should ask. “What kind of compromise can you make to avoid war?” Lutsevych told Radio Free Europe.

Publicly and privately, the White House confidently says: no, Biden has not asked Zelenskiy to make concessions; he has vowed that Washington and its european allies will strike Russia with heavy economic sanctions if a new offensive is launched.

“I know there has been a lot of noise in the press whether or not there have been omissions. “It’s clear there was not,” said White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki on December 9.

“I think President Biden has made it very clear that he stands behind our principles,” she added.

Biden “has made it clear that one state can not force another to change borders, one state can not tell another to change policy and states can not tell others who to work with” , a senior administration official later said.

In Kiev, Zelenskiy administration officials have assessed that Biden is a supporter of Ukraine’s eventual membership in NATO – which the Kremlin has publicly opposed.

“President Biden has made it very clear that Ukraine’s decision to join NATO is a decision of the Ukrainian people, of the sovereign and independent state of Ukraine. And he has not even been ready to discuss the matter. “It depends on Ukraine and NATO members,” Zelenskiy’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak told a television program in Ukraine.

One of the dangerous signals that has emerged from the Biden-Zelenskiy phone call is that the United States is ready to engage more in the conflict resolution process in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, says Maria Zolkina, a political analyst at the Foundation for Initiatives. Democratic, based in Kiev.

That means direct negotiations with Russia, which would put Ukraine at risk of exclusion, she added.

“If we are not at the table, we are out of the process,” Zolkina told Radio Free Europe.

A senior US administration official has sought to reduce such concerns, saying Biden had “made it clear to Zelenskiy…” that “if Ukraine is on the agenda, then Ukraine is on the table”.

Zelenskiyt development
The only way to end the war in the Donbas is set out in the Minsk Agreements, namely the ceasefires signed in September 2014 and February 2015, which provide the framework – albeit controversial – for peace agreements.

But, the devil hides in the details: how and when the withdrawal is made from both sides; how and to whom Kiev would grant the amnesty; how and when Ukraine would hold local elections in regions controlled by pro-Russian separatists and give them special status; how and when would Kiev regain full control of its border with Russia in those areas?

A major problem is that neither Kiev nor Moscow believe that the other side is negotiating with good intentions.
Russia’s continued denial of involvement in the fighting in eastern Ukraine – despite evidence to the contrary – does not help the situation.

Zelenskiy himself has scored a big victory in the 2019 elections, promising the end of the war.

In the beginning, he had some small victories. Five months after being elected president, he has secured a prisoner exchange with Russia. Thirty-five Ukrainians, who have been held in Russia – some for years – have returned home.

Since then, Zelenskiyt’s position on Russia has hardened, which has apparently sparked outrage in the Kremlin.

Zelenskiy, who is eligible to run for a second presidential term in 2024, has intensified calls for Ukraine to join NATO.

A day after the video conference with Biden last week, Putin spoke again about Russia’s position on the issue – although NATO has given no sign that Ukraine will be invited to join its ranks over the years. upcoming.

“We are concerned about the prospects of Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO, as this will ultimately result in the deployment of military contingents, bases and weapons, which pose a threat to us,” Putin said.

Noting that US missile defense systems are being deployed in Poland and Romania, Putin said Russia has “every reason to believe that the same thing will happen if Ukraine joins NATO.” “but on Ukrainian soil.”

“How can we not think about this?” Putin asked.

But it is not just Ukrainians who are nervous about the Biden-Putin conversation.

During the call, according to White House and Kremlin statements, the two leaders agreed to hold new talks on a range of issues, including Russia’s complaints about NATO.

Biden then said he hoped the White House would soon announce high-level meetings between Russia and the United States, along with the four key NATO allies.

This has alarmed NATO members in Eastern and Central Europe, who are extremely sensitive to Moscow’s threatening moves. Biden then made another call to the group known as the “Nine of Bucharest”, which includes the Baltic states and Poland.

A Polish diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Warsaw feared that the US approach to Ukraine would be to the detriment of Ukraine and other Central and Eastern European countries.

Biden and Zelenskiy have spoken at least twice before – once in person – on issues that have involved Russia.

In June, Biden’s White House chose not to impose sanctions on North Stream 2 – a pipeline under the Baltic Sea that allows Russia to send more gas to Europe, bypassing Ukraine’s pipeline network.

Zelenskiy has publicly expressed anger and made a phone call to Biden.

In September, then, Zelenskiy was hosted at the White House, where Biden and other U.S. officials secured him for strong U.S. support.

The meeting later resulted in a “new strategic partnership”, which includes specific co-operation on defense issues.

But since then, Moscow has threatened Ukraine, sending tens of thousands of troops – possibly more than 100,000 – to regions near the border with Ukraine and the annexed Crimean Peninsula.

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