REL: How will Ukraine affect the EU approach to the Balkans?

With a markedly slowing pace, the EU has continued the process of rapprochement with them – four of which: Albania, Northern Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia have candidate status – but only Montenegro and Serbia are conducted membership negotiations.

Albania and Northern Macedonia, although they have met all the conditions, have not yet started these negotiations. Bosnia and Herzegovina has applied for membership, but the European Commission has not given a positive opinion to offer it candidate status.

Kosovo, meanwhile, has not submitted a formal application for EU membership.

Although in various stages, the EU sees all Western Balkan countries with the potential to become members in the future. The EU no longer says this about Turkey, even though it is formally a candidate for membership and has been negotiating since 2005.

Crucial regions in the EU, including France and Germany, have called for caution in continuing the enlargement process and not making promises that this process could go on indefinitely.

As a senior EU official recalls for Radio Free Europe, “Since 2006, the EU has insisted that it will keep its promises to the Western Balkan countries for EU integration, but will not make commitments to other countries, especially those in the eastern neighborhood.”.

Therefore, for the Balkan countries, in the EU it has always been said that “support the European perspective “, thinking of formal membership, while for countries such as: Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, it is said that” support their European aspirations “.

“With the countries of the Western Balkans we have the process that should one day lead to EU membership. “But with the countries of Eastern Europe we have the process of rapprochement as much as possible, without promising membership.”says this official.

Things have now changed and a group called the “Six Partners from the Western Balkans” could be joined by three other eastern neighbors.

“It is likely that we will now have a group: 6 plus 3. So, the six partners of the Western Balkans will be joined by the three countries that have recently applied for EU membership, which are: Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova.”says a European diplomat.

The European Commission, sometime in mid-June, is expected to give its opinion on the three countries’ applications for EU membership. Although the EU continues to say that the bloc will “consider according to the procedures in force” their requests, it is clear that these requests have been made with great speed and the Commission’s response is expected very soon.

It usually takes at least a year from the application for membership to the publication of the opinion of the European Commission. Meanwhile, Ukraine and two other countries submitted applications three months ago and, less than four months later, the Commission will give its opinion. Following this opinion, the European Council will discuss these requirements at the summit on 23 and 24 June.

It is not known what the Commission’s response will be, because the analysis is done in abnormal circumstances for these three countries. Ukraine is under Russian occupation, while Georgia and Moldova also feel threatened because they have Russian-occupied territory they do not control.

A diplomat from a member state, who supports EU enlargement to the Western Balkans region, but also to Eastern European countries, told Radio Free Europe that “the EU is expected to send political messages, that these countries belong to the European family “, but” is not expected to be given the formal status of candidate country at this time “.

However, the EU seems to be in a difficult position, because, in these circumstances, it can not reject Ukraine, but, at the same time, the examples with the Western Balkans prove that the desire for EU enlargement is not great among member countries.

“It would not be fair” to the Balkans

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who will soon visit the Western Balkans, said that “It should not be forgotten that the countries of the Western Balkans region are still waiting”.

That “it would not be correct” to keep the Western Balkans waiting and give candidate status to Eastern European countries, said the Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mark Rutte, whose place, according to many diplomats, has always been at the top of those that have presented the most obstacles in the enlargement process with the countries of the Western Balkans.

The Prime Minister of Croatia, Andrej Plenkovi,, said that his country has always supported Ukraine’s aspirations for EU membership, but added that “we must not forget that we still have two countries of our immediate neighborhood, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. who do not have the status of a candidate ”.

Diplomats in Brussels are divided over how opening up integration opportunities for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia will affect the ongoing process with the “Balkan six”.

Some think it could speed it up because it would not make sense to leave it pending yet, but there are those who think it could have a negative impact and create a group with which the EU wants to have a connection. strong, but not to integrate it into its ranks in the near future.

Two proposals have been made in this direction: one by the President of France, Emanuel Macron, and the other by the President of the European Council, Charles Michel. Michel proposed the creation of a “European geopolitical community”, while Macron called it a “European political community”.

These ideas are similar and aim to maximize the approximation of non-EU countries to the European Union – without having to wait for their EU membership.

Michel has said that “In no way is this intended as a replacement for the current enlargement process, or as a new rationale for slowing down this process.”. Macron cited the length of the enlargement process, according to current procedures, as an argument for proposing ideas for new arrangements of relations between the EU and countries that want to “share the same values”.

But all countries aspiring to become full-fledged EU members will not be satisfied with promises of strong ties, as they aim for full EU membership.

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