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“Any step towards imposing sanctions will only hurt Serbia, not Russia,” said Andrej Mitic, the international secretary of the far-right Dveri party, as he enjoyed a glass of lemonade in the royal lobby of the Hotel Moscow in Belgrade.
“That is why we see these current anti-Russian policies as anti-Serbian policies. We see great dangers for the interests and values of the people. [serb]”, He says.
As Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic faces international pressure to join EU sanctions on Russia over its February 24 invasion of Ukraine, Serbia’s far-right politicians – politicians like Mitic – are the ones who are most voices calling on the government to ignore EU demands and support Russia.
So far, Vucic, who was sworn in for a second term on May 31, has followed suit and refused to join EU sanctions, which have targeted Russia’s energy and financial sectors, as well as Russia. high profile individuals. Serbia’s national interests, the Serbian president has argued, depend on maintaining friendly relations with all its international partners, not just Brussels.
Within the EU, Vucic has faced criticism from politicians and diplomats. Carl Bildt, who served as the EU Special Envoy to the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s, said on February 28th that Serbia’s position on the Russian occupation should disqualify it from the EU accession process.
And on March 21, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis called on countries that trade with Russia to face sanctions.
Although Vucic won convincingly in the April 3rd presidential, parliamentary and municipal elections, two ultranationalist parties entered the Serbian Parliament, a shift for which Vucic blamed the consequences of the Russian occupation of Ukraine.
A relatively new party in Serbia’s political scene, Dveri, served a single parliamentary term between 2016-2020 and returned to the national assembly in April, along with another ultranationalist party, the Zavetnici (Conspirators), who are entered Parliament for the first time.
“Dveri supports Russia’s current political position and believes that Russia has been forced to respond after being surrounded by NATO,” Mitic said, in a soft and polite voice, contrary to his populist rhetoric and Eurosceptic views.
It is not an easy geopolitical decision for Serbia. The EU is the country’s main economic benefactor and trading partner, but Belgrade is completely dependent on Russian energy imports and Moscow’s geopolitical support to block international recognition of Kosovo’s independence.
Throughout Vucic’s ten-year period in government, where he served as the country’s prime minister and president, Serbia has remained neutral, opportunistically shifting its geopolitical allegiance from the EU, Russia and China whenever it saw fit.
Mitic serves as Dver’s intellectual base and, in his own words, has the task of translating political theory into concrete policies for the party. His background is linked to political philosophy and he says he left the academy to join the party as a councilor in 2018.
He is also Dver’s spokesman for the international media, and his meditative behavior is in stark contrast to the party’s internal image, which is closely linked to its radical and vociferous leader, Bosko Obradovic.
Asked to argue his support for Russia, Mitic talks about Serbia’s dependence on Russian energy and Moscow’s support for the Kosovo issue, as well as the stable historical and cultural ties between the two “brotherly” nations.
As for a solution to the difficult issue of sanctions, he says Dver’s official position is that any such decision should be presented to the Serb people in a referendum.
The Zavetnici party, which also won 10 seats in the Serbian Parliament and less than 4 per cent of the vote in the April elections, also supports the idea of a referendum on sanctions. At a May 12 press conference attended by only two journalists, party leader Milica Djurdjevic-Stamenkovski outlined her stance on Russia, which is identical to Dver’s: no sanctions against Russia and any decision by Russia. such must be decided by referendum.
Djurdjevic-Stamenkovski became known to the public in 2008 when she played a key role in the violent protests that erupted after Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia. Since then, it has been the mainstay of right-wing street politics in the country. She also took part in demonstrations expressing support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and Putin’s annexation of Crimea.
When Radio Free Europe asked Djurdjevic-Stamenkovski why there should be a referendum on the issue of sanctions when the Serbian people had just given a clear mandate to the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), she said that “Serb-Russian relations are a centuries-old constant in Serbian society ”.
“The issue of sanctions against the Russian Federation is much more specific, more painful and would have more drastic consequences for our country than for any other country,” said Djurdjevic-Stamenkovski.
That is why, according to her, any decision that could jeopardize these ties, should be decided only by a nationwide vote.
Ideologically, Dveri and Zavetnici have very few parties. Both parties are ultranationalist, oppose Kosovo’s independence, and support closer ties with Russia.
The main difference between them is that Dveri supports a return to monarchical rule, promotes religiously conservative views, and has a less hooligan reputation than Zavetnici, whose protests have often led to violence and unrest in the past. For example, in October 2020 when the party protested against Albanian artists from Kosovo exhibiting their work in Belgrade.
Despite minimal differences, the two parties are natural allies, and Mitic confirmed to Radio Free Europe that Dveri had held talks with Zavetnic and other pro-Russian friends, the Socialist Party of Serbia, on how they could use their combined platform. parliamentarians to put pressure on Vucic to prevent the Serbian president from making concessions on sanctions.
The pro-Russian bloc, which also includes the center-right Democratic Party of Serbia, holds 66 of the 250 seats in Serbia’s new parliament – still less than half the number of seats belonging to the ruling SNS.
However, this does not mean that Vucic has no reason to worry. According to Belgrade-based political analyst Dragomir Angjelkovic, the real danger of Serbia imposing sanctions on Russia stems from a possible revolt within Vucic’s party.
“I believe that any action of this kind by Vucic would provoke a major reaction within the SNS,” said Angelkovic. “Their voters are against Russian sanctions and most party members share the same views as most party officials. Sure, at the head of the party, the officials would be silent and follow the line of the presidency, but [sanksionet] would lead to serious protests at the lowest levels and between the party base.
How did the Western Balkans respond to the Russian occupation of Ukraine?
Not only within the SNS, Vucic is also concerned with how the Serbian public would react if the government joined the sanctions against Russia. Mitic says the imposition of sanctions would provoke a public reaction so strong that it would “overthrow the Government”. Asked about the possibility, Angelkovic said he was “certain” that a decision to impose sanctions would “cause mass unrest that would put people on the streets.”
In early March, shortly after the start of the Russian occupation of Ukraine, the People’s Patrol, the most prominent ultranationalist street movement in Serbia, staged a pro-Russian protest in central Belgrade.
Since then, the extremist group has continued to demonstrate, albeit with less intensity and participation. The group’s 33-year-old leader, Damnjan Knezevic, is convinced that mass discontent has the potential to triumph over Vucic’s political dominance in Serbia.
“Unfortunately people can not do much, but what they can do is give legitimacy or express their opposition to certain political decisions by taking to the streets,” Knezevic said.
“We saw it in July 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic where most of the Serb people did not want to return to isolation… We are the only country in the region that did not have a second closure. “As for the situation around Russia, I am absolutely sure that we will be even more aggressive.”
Serbia is often perceived as an instinctively pro-Russian nation, yet the reality is more complex.
In March, Demostat, a respected Belgrade-based polling agency, published a survey that found that only 21 per cent of the public believed that Serbia should be on Russia’s side. However, in April, a poll found that 76 percent of Serb citizens oppose Russian sanctions. So people did not want to side with Russia, but they also did not want to sanction it.
The Demostat survey also found that 50 per cent of respondents believe that Serbia should remain unengaged, despite the costs.
Moreover, many Serbs are motivated by their antipathy to the West. Angelkovic says much of the West’s lack of popularity stems from dissatisfaction with sanctions and military intervention against Serbia during the 1990s, and not from the spread of Russophilia.
“People are aware that the West has hurt us in the past,” said Angelkovic.
“So for them, it ultimately seems irrational and self-destructive to turn against someone who has consistently supported us simply because of the demands of those who have hurt us in the past and continue to do so.”
Vucic’s dilemma is complicated by the fact that the EU is essential for the Serbian economy. Over 63 per cent of Serbia’s trade is with the EU, while over 77 per cent of foreign investment and the vast majority of development funding comes from the bloc, aid that some Serbian politicians fear could stall if they continue. to oppose sanctions.
“Any kind of disconnection [me BE-në] or loss of status [të kandidatit] “It would be detrimental to Serbia in many dimensions, not only through the economic support that Serbia receives from the EU,” said Igor Novakovic, director of research at the Center for International Affairs and Security in Belgrade.
Serbia was granted EU candidate status in 2012.
“Investors expect that Serbia will one day become a member of the EU and in the future will establish extremely strong ties with the European Union. So this can be a strong warning for some investors to withdraw [nga Serbia]”.
Despite these concerns, however, Serbia’s far-right opposition does not accept the risks. The leader of the Oath-holders, Djurdjevic-Stamenkovski, says that “foreign investors would leave Serbia much sooner if Serbia imposed sanctions on Russia” because of the “rising energy prices that would have a direct consequence.” , while Mitic i Dverit says that Serbian citizens would not feel any consequences.
“In relation to these investments [të huaja] “And everything else, the Serbian people see very little benefit from them,” said Mitic. “There are some benefits, but they mainly go either to the NGO sector or to endless reforms that are an end in themselves. The Serbian people have received very few benefits in the last 22 years.”
“If we look at things in the long run, it is possible that there will be even more serious consequences if we do not impose sanctions,” said Angelkovic. “But it is difficult for the government to measure this and ignore its current problems because of something that could happen in the future.”
So which side does he think Vucic will eventually choose?
“I think that, as a pragmatic politician, Vucic will act in accordance with his party interests as well as other interests and will delay. [një vendim] “as much as possible, so that he can buy himself more time until he sees how things will go in Ukraine,” said Angelkovic.
“In the coming months, I am sure that Serbia will not impose sanctions, but we will have to see what happens next.”
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