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As Russia’s offensive against Ukraine enters its third month, questions continue to be raised as to whether a negotiated solution with Russian President Vladimir Putin is possible.
Kenneth Dekleva, a psychiatrist who has previously worked with the State Department, dismisses any speculation that Putin is unstable and therefore impossible to talk to.
“He has no mental problems. “He is a rational actor and in his mind, he knows exactly what he is doing.” says Mr. Dekleva. “He is an extremely smart leader, very intelligent and ruthless, who has been in power for more than 22 years.”
Mr. Dekleva, a senior fellow at the George HW Bush Foundation for US-China Relations, has been studying the former Russian intelligence agent for 20 years. He describes Putin as a man of unwavering, strong mind, master of manipulating people and extremely focused, as a result of his preparations in the KGB.
President Putin is 69 years old and his recent actions may suggest a less flexible leadership style, which in some cases is observed in older leaders.
“You become more rigid. You see things more in black and white, and you have less tolerance for nuances and alternatives. Of course it is a possibility, though it can not be said only from his recent decision regarding the war in Ukraine. “He seems to be deliberately very focused and a man in a hurry.” says Mr. Dekleva.
The key to negotiating with someone like Putin, says Mr. Dekleva, is trying to understand and the ability to share his mentality even when you do not agree with him.
For Jason Pack, an analyst at the NATO Defense College Foundation in Italy, reaching an agreement with Putin requires persuasive action.
“I think we have to be extremely courageous, to the point of those situations that we might think would cause a major escalation – like getting involved in a fierce cyber war.” says Mr. Pack. “For example, turn off the lights in St. Petersburg for two hours and then negotiate… Next time, two days will pass (without lights) if you do not meet our requirements.”
Pack says Putin had every reason to believe that the West would back down if he attacked Ukraine, despite the West having “more military and economic power.”
He points to Russian intervention in Georgia in 2008, once part of the Soviet Union and now an independent republic. Russia occupied 20% of that country’s territory. In 2014, Putin kidnapped Ukraine from the southern region of Crimea.
“It seems that he respects force, and he does not only respect dialogue. He did not even think that sanctions (threatened by the West) would be imposed if he attacked. “In his mind, they were just words.” says Mr Pack, adding that he does not believe Putin will take any catastrophic nuclear action.
“He wants to live. He is terrified of COVID. He stands 6 meters away from his advisers (pictured). “So I do not think there is a danger that he will undermine the world as long as we adhere to the rules so that NATO does not fight in Ukraine.”
Putin vehemently opposes Ukraine’s membership in NATO. That country was part of the Soviet Union. He has complained that the West is very close to Russia’s borders./VOA
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