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Andrei Illarionov, a former top economic adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, explained to CNN why he thinks a full embargo on Russian oil would end the war soon.
He recently told the BBC that if Western countries imposed a “real embargo” on oil and gas exports from Russia, Russian operations in Ukraine would probably be halted “within a month or two”.
“I think it is a very important non-military instrument to influence the decision-making process in the Kremlin“Illarionov told CNN.
“The reason is very simple. Right now, direct revenues from oil and gas exports from Russia are considered about 40% of all budget revenues in Russia. considering direct and indirect income. The total will probably be close to 60% of all federal budget revenues”.
Illarionov went on to explain the conditions needed to create enough economic pressure to halt Russia’s operations in Ukraine.
“Assuming that these revenues would be significantly reduced as a result of the implementation of the full embargo on energy exports from Russia, and assuming that Russia currently does not have access to the credit market due to sanctions, add to this the fact that Russia’s central bank’s foreign exchange reserves are frozen, Putin’s government will no longer have the resources to finance the war“, He continued.
Illarionov noted that all these costs would be forced to “reduce by 40% to 50%”, a figure that was not seen even in the 1990s. “That is why the regime will be in the position that it will must stop operations, demand a ceasefire and see canesine of achievement ne negotiations with Ukraine, “he explained.
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