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The Russian military occupation of Ukraine has significantly reduced the amount of wheat and barley, two of the most important cereals for food products, but has also significantly increased the prices of their by-products, provoking a food crisis among the poor.
Ukraine is one of the largest producers and exporters of wheat, while Russia produces a significant portion of chemical fertilizers, which at this stage can not export due to harsh economic sanctions imposed by the West.
The decline in cereals and fertilizers was reflected in global markets very quickly.
About a month after the start of the invasion, the price of barley has risen by 33 per cent, that of wheat by 21 per cent and of many fertilizers by 40 per cent.
The reduction in production caused by the war, combined with the reduced amount of fertilizers due to sanctions, could have a strong impact globally, especially by worsening the living conditions of the poor population, who even before conflict had difficulty feeding.
Over the past five years, Ukraine and Russia alone have accounted for 30 percent of world wheat exports, 32 percent of barley exports, and 75 percent of sunflower seed exports. The oil produced by the latter is in many places base for most industrially produced food or for home cooking.
While Russia is unable to export due to economic sanctions, Ukraine is unable to bring much of its products abroad due to the Russian blockade of its main ports on the Black Sea.
The war has also made the transportation of food raw materials via railways even more difficult. Land exports to countries bordering Ukraine to the west have also become complicated.
Concerns relate not only to export opportunities, but also to harvest opportunities.
In Ukraine it is increasingly difficult to find fuel, which is essential to put into operation agricultural machinery for the maintenance of fields and crops.
Most of the fuel was destined for Ukrainian military vehicles. For this reason, in recent weeks, the Ukrainian government has asked European countries to help supply fuel for agricultural vehicles that can be served in those areas of the country that have not yet been affected by Russian military occupation.
However, as long as the Russian occupation progresses, there is a risk that a third of the cultivated area in Ukraine will be turned into a war zone, making it completely impossible to grow cereals and other raw materials.
Among the millions of people seeking to move to safer areas or places, both within the country and in neighboring states, there are numerous farmers who will therefore not work for the next harvest.
The small amount of cereal exports from Ukraine is forcing traders to turn to other countries, which will face much higher demands than normal, not being able to respond to all. To these difficulties are added those related to atmospheric conditions, which always affect the production capacities of some countries.
Floods in part of China last year left the country’s wheat production insufficient for this year, as a result of which China will be forced to buy wheat from abroad in order to meet domestic needs.
Also, the small amount of chemical fertilizers on the market will have further consequences on the world agricultural production. In recent months, many European producers had reduced their activity due to the high price of energy, as the production of fertilizers consumes a large amount of energy.
In Russia, the production of chemical fertilizers did not decline due to the large amount of oil and gas that serves to produce electricity, but with the imposition of new sanctions, the industry has been forced to reduce their production. Given this situation, the price of chemical fertilizers has gradually increased, prompting farmers to reduce the amount of their use.
The United Nations World Food Program (WFP), which deals with food aid, has estimated that the military invasion of Ukraine will lead to starvation of up to 13 million more people, exacerbating an already aggravated situation by the effects of the pandemic. of the coronavirus. Prior to 2020, the problem affected approximately 720 million people worldwide, it is now estimated to affect at least 811 million people.
WFP chief executive David M. Beasley said the invasion of Ukraine “simply set one catastrophe over another”, stressing that there has been no event comparable to this since World War II.
The UN Food Program feeds approximately 125 million people every day, but that has faced cost increases of about $ 70 million in recent months alone.
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