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Russian President Vladimir Putin in a statement on February 14 with the foreign minister said that despite warnings from the West about an imminent invasion of Ukraine, diplomacy must continue.
A day later, the Russian Defense Ministry said some of the 180,000 troops it has deployed on its borders with Ukraine will return to their bases once military exercises are over.
Intelligence sources showed footage of several military troops preparing to fight.
Many Western security officials have accused Putin of cheating. But even if the troops are withdrawn, this crisis is not over yet.
Whatever happens, with or without war, Putin has done damage to his country, according to The Economist.
Many Western observers have denied this. Putin has been at the center of global attention, proving that Russia is powerful. He has brought destabilization to Ukraine, showing everyone that its future is in his hands.
Putin can still get what he has asked of NATO to avoid war. And in his own country, he has underscored leadership skills, diverting attention from economic hardship and pressure from opposition figures like Alexei Navalny.
However these are his tactics. Although Putin has won them, in a longer-term and more strategic sense he has lost support.
The spurred on by Joe Biden, who once called Putin a killer, the West has agreed to a tougher package of sanctions than in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea.
NATO has been criticized in 2019 by the French president, who called the alliance obsolete. Since they have always preferred to keep their distance, Sweden and Finland can join the alliance.
Germany, after consistently supporting the new Nord Stream 2 network, has acknowledged that Russian gas is an obligation it must face and that an invasion would destroy the project.
Putin has demanded that Ukraine not join NATO. What matters most is that Ukraine is enjoying Western diplomatic and military support.
These ties, created during the crisis, will not break down suddenly if Russian forces withdraw.
And yet it is the opposite of what Putin wants. And for Putin, Europe’s security is a priority, including discussions on missiles and military exercises.
Such talks are in everyone’s interest because they reduce the risk of conflict. If lucrative negotiations count as a victory for Putin, then many are expected.
Putin’s most intriguing defeat is in his country. Russia has tried to build a strong economy. It has increased its reserves and reduced the dependence of companies on foreign capital and has worked hard to build its technological network.
Russia has also strengthened relations with China in hopes of finding a buyer for hydrocarbons that are still the main source.
Although these actions have reduced the potential damage from Western sanctions, they have not eliminated it.
27% of all Russian exports go to the EU, China exports about half of this gas network Power of Siberia that will pass through China, when completed in 2025, will carry only one-fifth of what now passes through Europe .
In the event of a serious conflict, sanctions through the rapid network of banking transactions or in large Russian banks will disrupt the financial system. Huawei-style import restrictions would cause great hardship for Russian tech firms.
Putin will either live with this interdependence or he can increase cooperation with China. This alliance of autocrats would also have a psychological cost within Russia.
This would show Putin’s dependence on siloviki (a politician who once served in the military), security bosses who see Ukraine’s democracy, and deepening ties with the West as a threat to their ability to control Russia.
This is a sign for the liberal capitalists and technocrats, who are the other pillar of the Russian state. The best would leave, the others would give up.
But what if Putin invaded Ukraine?
This can still be the terrible result of this crisis, as each side seeks to maneuver the other. Just this week, the Duma asked Putin to recognize the self-proclaimed “republics” in the Donbas, which claim large swathes of Ukrainian territory that they do not currently control.
In addition to destroying Ukraine, the war would do much more harm to Russia.
The West would be more determined to turn its back on Russian gas, Ukraine would be a wound that would ‘bleed’ Russia, and Putin would be considered a traitor.
The withdrawal of the country combined with its ambitions could trigger an attack even later.
Seeing the threat this situation poses now, the West has the best chance of thwarting the war.
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