[ad_1]
Natural gas flowing from Russian pipelines heats homes and buildings in much of Europe. In other words, Russia is Europe’s largest supplier of this substance. One third of the gas, which reaches the mainland, passes through Ukraine.
Now that fears of Russian occupation of Ukraine have grown, so have concerns about reducing or cutting off Russian gas to Europe.
The United States, as well as other Western countries, have threatened Russia with devastating sanctions if it attacks Ukraine.
Russian policymakers have warned that if their country breaks away from the international banking system, as has been warned, then Russian gas will not flow.
“If Russia breaks away from SWIFT, then we will have no money in circulation. “And our buyers, first and foremost European countries, will not receive our goods: oil, gas, metals and other important components of their imports,” said Nikolay Zhuravlev, vice-president of the Council of the Russian Federation. Tass news agency.
These warnings have prompted the European Union and the United States to seek alternative supplies.
In a joint statement issued late last month, US President Joe Biden and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said: “The United States and the European Union are working together to ensure a continuous and sufficient supply of natural gas to the EU, from various sources around the globe ”.
Von der Leyen has also discussed gas purchases with the Emir of Qatar. EU Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson has focused on talks with Azerbaijan, and the US-EU Energy Council convened on February 7 to discuss alternatives.
Some analysts say that despite the efforts, Russian gas will be difficult to replace, at least for 10-15 years. Nikos Tsafos, energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, talks about Radio Free Europe Expose:
“Russian gas is critical for Europe. It covers about 40 to 45 percent of Europe’s imports. For some countries it is more important than for others. “The reality is that, for now and in the near future, Europe cannot function without Russian gas.”
What could be the alternative?
Tsafos says small interruptions in Russian supplies would aggravate him, but would not disrupt the system. Complete termination, according to him, would be something else.
“If only the gas passing through Ukraine is cut off, it would be a painful but manageable thing. If we talk about zero reduction of Russian gas in Europe, then it would be a disaster. “It would be extremely difficult for Europe to adjust in such a short time to such a huge loss.”
Outside of Ukraine, Russia uses several direct pipelines to send gas to Europe, among them: the North Stream pipeline that carries gas directly to Germany.
Tsafos says that last year, Russia exported about 180 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe, while only 40 billion passed through Ukraine. In addition to Russia, a quantity of gas for the European continent is also provided by Norway, Algeria and Qatar.
Speaking to the Exposition, Thierry Bros., a European gas market specialist at the University of Sciences Po in Paris, says he does not believe Russia will completely cut off gas to Europe.
If shortages come up, he says one option to keep Europe supplied is liquefied natural gas, which is transported by ocean-going tankers instead of pipelines.
“We can not expect more gas from Norway, we can not expect more gas from Algeria and other countries. “The only solution is liquefied natural gas.”
Liquefied natural gas is natural gas that is converted to liquid, in order to be easier to store and transport. In the event of a complete shutdown of Russian gas, there is not even enough liquefied natural gas. The quantity cannot be increased overnight and export terminals cost billions of dollars. Professor Bros. says Europe has been “naive” with heavy dependence on Russia.
“We have to see what gas market we want with Russia. We need Russia for some of our volumes. But we must look and try to reduce this dependence on Russia in the coming years. “This should be the result of this crisis.”
Nikos Tsafos from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington thinks similarly. According to him, Europe needs to think in the long run and dependence on Russia is reduced by using less gas.
“Europe’s best defense is to reform and reorganize its energy system towards energy with lower carbon emissions. We should not have illusions that this will be easy or will solve all the problems. The point is that these problems that Europe is facing are directly related to the hydrocarbon system that Europe has. “If you switch to clean energy sources, some of these problems will become less apparent.”
According to the latest data from the EU statistics agency, Eurostat, the EU dependence on natural gas was 83.5% in 2020. In 2019 it was 89.5%.
World electricity prices have risen since last year and my two interlocutors say they will rise even more if Europe is forced to find alternatives to gas supply.
Natural gas can be stored, but reserves are already smaller than usual because Russia is said to have reduced exports to Europe late last year. The head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said last month that Russian gas company Gazprom had reduced exports to Europe by 25% in the last quarter of 2021, compared to the same period a year earlier. Gazprom, on the other hand, has said it is respecting contracts.
Stocks can last until April
An analysis by the Bruegel Institute in Brussels, which conducts research on economic issues, shows that if Russia stops sending gas to the European Union in February, the bloc’s reserves could last until April.
Yes, would cutting off gas to Europe be in Russia’s interest? Tierry Bros. of the University of Sciences talks about the Epic:
“Gazprom earns about $ 6 billion a month for gas it sells in Europe. Therefore, I think it would not be a good scenario for gas pumps to reduce gas flow. I think the possible scenario is for Russia to just cut supplies, because that way gas flows to Europe and Russia gains euros or dollars. “And so, by reducing gas, Russia can create further divisions among European countries, because some will be treated better than others.”
According to Eurostat, the largest importers of Russian gas in the European Union are Germany and Italy, while outside the EU are Turkey and Belarus.
Russian gas has been leaking into Europe for decades, even during times of crisis and even during the break-up of the Soviet Union. The fear is now from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is often described as unpredictable. The American newspaper, the New York Times, had an article on February 3 with the headline: “Putin has saved for this day”.
According to the newspaper, Putin, “over the past few years, has restructured his country’s economy with the specific goal of withstanding Western financial pressure.”
“Russia has drastically reduced the use of the dollar and thus the leverage of Washington,” wrote the New York Times, among other things.
top channel
[ad_2]
Source link
