When will Covid-19 become endemic?

This issue is highly debated and is partly accompanied by some topics already addressed since the end of last summer, when it seemed that the situation was normalizing especially after the problems caused by the Delta variant.

The emergence of the Omicron variant later confirmed the fact that it is difficult to predict the situation, but it can still be useful to understand what it means and what the signs of an endemic are.

Pandemic, epidemic and endemic

A pandemic, the situation we have been in for almost two years, shows the rapid spread of a disease all over the world and that very quickly affects a large part of its population.

The high number of infected people, sick and victims, stems from the lack of immunity to the virus that causes the disease (pathogen or virus) ie the lack of resources in the body of each to fight immediately and effectively the infection.

An epidemic, on the other hand, indicates the spread of a disease in a given geographical area, with a large number of patients compared to what would be expected in a given period of time based on previous experiences.

By endemic, we mean the presence of a pathogen or a disease in a certain geographical area, which creates persistent infections and which in certain periods of time can also create epidemics.

Endemic disease

After two years of pandemics, the idea that Covid-19 could turn into an endemic disease is viewed positively given what we have seen so far. From some points of view it would be an important development, but we must make sure that we do not fall into some misunderstandings.

At an endemic stage, it does not mean that the disease disappears: people continue to get sick, some develop more severe symptoms than others, and are more at risk of losing their lives as a result of the infection. Also, it does not mean that infections that will be created later, will necessarily cause milder symptoms than today.

When the disease reaches an endemic state, it means that the disease has stabilized; the number of cases in the affected population remains almost constant. There are not enough vulnerable individuals to create outbreaks and there are not as many immunized individuals to prevent the spread of the disease.

flu

There may be stages that an endemic disease causes significant epidemic waves, as in the case of influenza. The flu can even lead to a pandemic, as happened in 1918 and to a lesser extent in 2009, with the H1N1 flu virus. Among the main causes of influenza pandemics is that the immune protection naturally acquired from previous infections or through vaccine is not sufficient to fight the new circulating pathogen.

COVID-19 and cooling

Cold is another example of an endemic disease and is often mentioned during this pandemic because in many cases it is caused by several types of coronavirus. Therefore, there are hypotheses that the current virus may gradually join the team of cold causes. However, there are still no guarantees in this regard, nor can predictions be easily made.

The Omicron variant, however, includes milder symptoms than other coronavirus variants, but it is still too early to argue that this circumstance indicates the transition of the disease to another stage and as a prelude to endemism. It is possible to rule out the possibility that in the coming months new variants will appear, with different characteristics and that may lead to a new aggravation of the pandemic in terms of the seriously ill and the victims.

vaccinations

The transition to the endemic phase can be accelerated by vaccinating as many people as possible, especially in those parts of the world where the percentage of vaccinated people is still very low. Vaccines protect humans against Covid-19 and help reduce coronavirus circulation. In this way millions of people can develop not only antibodies, which over time tend to disappear, but also the ability to produce new and specialized antibodies in the case of new infections, thanks to immune memory and the activity of some cells. special immune.

cohabitation

The coronavirus will continue to be a part of our lives and will often be remembered by most of the population, especially in the generations that experienced its effects more than anyone else. The speed at which the coronavirus evolves in relation to our ability to respond adequately will be a determining factor in understanding whether and how often we should be vaccinated.

The Delta and Omicron variants have clearly shown that at the moment the coronavirus continues to change rapidly, but experts believe that there is a good chance that the production of new variants will decrease over time. The growing number of immunized people will contribute to this slowdown, but it will all depend on how the herd’s immunity is achieved.

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